The 2024 presidential election is still over six months away, and with that amount of time left, really anything could happen. It's especially worth repeating given how competitive and close the race between President Joe Biden and former and potentially future President Donald Trump looks to be. When polls came out earlier this week showing hopeful news for Biden, including from NBC news and the Marist poll, the mainstream media was all too ready to jump on board in excitement. Both polls showed an improvement for the unpopular incumbent, but how much will that matter months from now, and are there more prevailing factors?
The Marist poll, for instance, has Biden leading with 51 percent to Trump's 48 percent. Just 1 percent are undecided. Biden also has a lead when third party candidates are factored in, as he enjoys 43 percent support to Trump's 38 percent and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s 14 percent. In a poll from the start of this month, Biden had 50 percent to Trump's 48 percent.
A significant takeaway from the poll's write-up seems to be about how Trump has lost support. For instance:
Trump has lost support among independents and those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates. Trump (49%) and Biden (49%) now tie among independents. Trump held a 7-percentage point lead over Biden previously (52% for Trump to 45% for Biden). Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, Biden (50%) and Trump (48%) are now competitive. Trump previously had a 15-percentage point advantage over Biden (54% for Trump to 39% for Biden) among these voters.
A reason perhaps for Biden's slim lead might be because his approval rating. At 43 percent, it's unchanged from earlier in the month. That's up from the 40 percent it was in February and last December. Forty-two percent of national adults and 45 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of the president. Still, RealClearPolling has Biden's overall approval rating at just 40.2 percent. The poll's write-up also noted that "19% of Americans strongly approve of Biden’s job performance compared with 38% who strongly disapprove."
The poll's write-up also includes a quote on where Biden has strengths with voters. "Despite some weak spots for Joe Biden among non-whites and younger voters, he continues to outperform his 2020 numbers among white voters," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Although it bears watching in the future, right now, a multicandidate field does not benefit Trump."
That leaves open to how RFK Jr's. role in the race could change, as could any number of factors.
Further, regardless as to what does or doesn't change, in what's looking to be a close and competitive election, each candidate likely needs all the help he can get. And this warning about Biden losing out on his 2020 coalition with non-white voters has certainly been a story.
As one can see from the bullet point above, the write-up makes a big deal about Independents, and going from a 7-point lead to a tie is significant. There's more:
Trump’s support among independents is also down (30% from 38%) in a multi-candidate field. While Biden’s support is little changed (34% from 33%), Kennedy’s support among independents has inched up to 27% from 21%, previously.
So, is Trump's previous lead with Independents--a group that was key to Biden's win in 2020--an outlier, or is this tie between the two candidates? Does RFK Jr.'s improvement play a role here? These are key questions when it comes to such a coveted voting bloc. More polls, from Marist and elsewhere will be helpful to analyze as they come in.
This poll is something of a brief one, though it does ask voters their thoughts on Biden's handling of the economy, with 44 percent of registered voters saying they approve, compared to 53 percent who disapprove. While Trump and Biden are tied among Independents, just 33 percent of this demographic approves of his handling of the economy. This is one of the "better" polls for Biden on the economy, as RealClearPolling has him at an overall 39.7. percent approval rating for his handling of the issue top-of-mind for so many voters.
Other polls show Trump with an edge on the economy, by double digits. That includes at the national level and with key battleground states. As Guy also highlighted about a Fox News poll of swing states, Trump, specifically in Georgia, "leads Biden by eight points on energy policy, 15 points on foreign policy, and even wider margins on immigration and the economy," by 59-37 percent to be exact.
Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict is even worse, with the Marist write-up highlighting how Biden has declined on the issue. "Biden’s approval score on his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas is even worse [than the economy]. 35% approve, down from 40% in November of 2023, and 57% now disapprove."
Just 26 percent of Independents and 15 percent of Republicans approve of Biden's handling here, and only 64 percent of Biden's fellow Democrats do, while a not insignificant 28 percent of them disapprove.
The Marist poll was conducted April 16-18, with 1,047 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, putting Biden's lead within the margin of error.
Trump is still up overall, including by +2 in that NBC News poll and by +0.2 overall, according to RealClearPolling, as of Wednesday morning.
It similarly bears repeating when Trump is ahead in the polls, as he and the RNC cannot afford to get cocky and take anything for granted here. This is especially when it comes to the stops Democrats are willing to pull out to win.