Tipsheet

What New 2024 Polling in Six Key Swing States Reveals

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  April 17, 2024 10:15 AM

Let's extend our polling analysis streak.  On Monday, we broke down a fresh New York Times survey, noting major concerns for President Biden in the data, despite his marginal improvement in the series.  Yesterday, we underscored additional evidence pointing to former President Trump's strength among 'low propensity' and unregistered voters, which presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Republicans this fall.  Today, let's examine new numbers from Echelon Insights, which conducted a survey of voters across half-a-dozen crucial battleground states, commissioned by the conservative Heritage Foundation. The results look strikingly familiar, as compared to similar batches of polling released in recent months:


In this data set, Trump leads modestly-to-comfortably in five of the six states surveyed, and is essentially tied in the sixth.  I've written previously that it's ludicrously early to draw any strong conclusions from polling, but also that polling at this stage may be more useful than usual, considering that both presumptive major party nominees have universal name recognition.  It's a rematch between two presidents, about whom everyone has fairly entrenched opinions.  If the projections embedded above reflect November's outcomes, with all else being equal, Trump would win the presidency with over 300 electoral votes.  But will all else be equal?  There are any number of factors that could worsen the incumbent's weak standing, while other scenarios could strengthen his position.  Democrats will likely heavily outspend Trump and the Republicans, which will matter both in terms of messaging, and 'ballots-in-hands' ground game.  

Then there's the mystery of whether Trump's legal headwinds will ultimately sway voters a lot, a little, not at all, or perhaps in his favor -- even if the GOP nominee becomes a convicted felon, a title that the current, politicized New York case seems designed to attain.  Jim Geraghty puzzles through that critical question at National Review, and comes away unconvinced that Trump's various trials will matter much:

Color me skeptical of the notion that a criminal conviction will cause some portion of current Trump supporters to abandon him — even a small portion. After all, guilt in civil trials has had no discernable impact on Trump’s support. Trump’s fanbase has its justifications and excuses lined up — “It’s a political witch hunt.” And in the case of Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, the argument is much stronger than usual...if Bragg’s case falls apart and Trump is acquitted...who will change their vote in favor of him? Which voters out there are currently wavering because of charged defendant Trump, but will jump on board the bandwagon for acquitted-in-one-of-four-criminal-cases Trump? Trump’s critics will console themselves that Bragg’s case was the weakest and least consequential...when we know the winner of the 2024 election, I don’t know if the verdict in this hush-money trial will turn out to have been much of a factor. I think we’ll be talking about the economy, the border, the chaos overseas, and whatever crazy things Trump and Joe Biden say in the closing weeks and months...Biden has been a national political figure since the mid 1970s, and Trump has been a celebrity since the early 1980s. There is exceptionally little that is new or different in a Biden vs. Trump rematch. 

Noah Rothman offers the opposing view, which is also compelling.  I suspect the trial results will matter at the margins, in an election that will be decided at the margins.  I agree that more than 90 percent of voters are absolutely locked in already, I'd guess, with very few true persuadables, who genuinely aren't sure which way they'll vote. The more decisive question may be who decides they can't be bothered to participate this year, and why.  I do wonder, as I alluded to above, whether Trump may engender some degree of sympathy in the Manhattan circus.  Legal analysts from across the spectrum have called District Attorney Alvin Bragg's prosecution an untested and dubious legal bank shot that upgrades misdemeanors into felonies on very shaky ground (the feds and Bragg's predecessor looked at this case and took a pass on indicating Trump).  

Bragg is a hardcore partisan, and campaigned as such.  The judge in the case is a Biden donor.  He may end up barring Trump from attending his son's high school graduation, which would seem gratuitous to many, especially in light of the president's travel schedule and the non-violent nature of the cobbled-together alleged crimes.  It doesn't take a MAGA adherent to whiff of this set of facts and smell politics.  I'll leave you with a vehement Trump critic (and long ago Townhaller) ripping the Biden campaign for its unsubtle winks at the New York trial, which gleefully reference their opponent's legal turmoil:  

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Bidenworld needs to pick: Either (1) Trump's legal peril is a serious matter, and Biden will remain studiously above that fray, to avoid the appearance of politics in the prosecutions, or (2) Trump's trials are fundamentally fair game in the political realm.  If it's the latter, Team Biden shouldn't hesitate to dunk on its opponent's travails -- in this case at the hands of a prosecutor from Biden's party, presided over by a judge who donated to Biden's last campaign against Trump.  I'm not sure voters who aren't already solidly anti-Trump will be impressed by that overall look.  I'll leave you with this: