For years, Democrats and some Republican activist groups have rolled out one of the mainstays of the campaign season: voter registration drives. There are arguments for and against these operations. It’s good to pad the rolls with your party members, expanding the base for future elections at the state, local, and federal levels. Then again, there’s no guarantee that these people will show up to vote, so was pitching a tent, setting up a table, and registering someone who never voted before, let alone bothered to register, worth the time than, say, calling numerous super voters or canvassing their neighborhoods reminding them to get out to the polls come Election Day?
Either way, these drives are considered necessary to any operation, but a new Marquette Law School poll might put the cooler on these drives, which Democrats often tout. As it turns out, the folks who never voted or registered to vote are pretty fond of Donald Trump. Those “registered and certain to vote” break for Biden over Trump 52/48. Registered but on the fence come Election Day break Trump 56/44. And the unregistered are on the MAGA train 64/36.
expect Democrats to very subtly stop talking about how important it is to register new voters and increase turnout, and how actually voting is sort of lame if you think about it pic.twitter.com/YFjJJMtx0O
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) April 4, 2024
Logan Dobson, a pollster, tweeted, “Expect Democrats to very subtly stop talking about how important it is to register new voters and increase turnout, and how actually voting is sort of lame if you think about it.”
Some replied wondering if this poll meant Republicans would now back automatic voter registration. But is this new? In 2016, millions who had never voted before cast their first ballot for the then-unknown, populist, and ‘something totally different’ candidacy of Donald Trump. The ‘not an ordinary’ politician point still sells with Trump, though he can no longer cast himself as an outsider being a former president.
Maybe this cycle more attention should be given to new voter registration drives since, unlike past campaigns, when folks decided to go MAGA, they’re animated, motivated, and will likely remember to vote come Election Day. It’s up to the campaign to get that ironclad commitment in the months and weeks leading up to Election Day through voter outreach. Another component is one the GOP has often eschewed, but ballot harvesting saved the House from remaining in Democratic hands. A select number of Republicans in California, like Young Kim, worked within the law and saved her seat, along with a few others. We may not like it, but the Election Day vote can no longer be counted on to counter the avalanche of early votes Democrats cobble together.
That’s a piece of infrastructure that I’d hope the new RNC and the Trump campaign push aggressively.