While President Joe Biden may have expressed excitement and confidence about 2024 being a rematch of the 2020 presidential election campaign between him and former and potentially future President Donald Trump, this time looks to be very different for him. We've covered at length how the polls aren't too friendly, and in ways that we never saw in 2020. There's more to the story, however, regarding why 2024 looks to be trickier for Biden in comparison to his 2020 victory.
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson has been known for being a Republican, which is why it was noteworthy that he endorsed Biden in 2020. It was the first time he had endorsed a political candidate, as Fox News' Will Cain reminded him during their interview which aired on Friday.
As he explained during his interview with Cain, Johnson is not endorsing anyone for 2024. Cain also addressed that 2020 endorsement, pointing out that "a lot of people on Fox... remember that and wonder about that.”
“Are you happy that you made that endorsement in 2020? Are you happy with the state of America?" he asked.
Johnson was clear that he was not "happy with the state of America right now," although he does believe "we can get better," especially because "he's an optimistic guy."
About the 2020 endorsement, he explained it was "one [he] thought was the best decision for [him] at that time," adding, "And I thought back then, when we talk about hate, you know, I'm in this position where I have some influence, and it's my job then, it felt like that then, it's my job now to exercise my influence and share this is who I'm going to endorse."
Johnson also shared he's not making an endorsement this time because of what he realizes now that he didn't at the time. While he appreciates being the most followed American man in the world, "I also realize that what that [endorsement] caused, back then, was something that tears me up in my guts," specifically how "the division... got me." Explaining that endorsement, Johnson spoke of "unrest" and how "maybe we need a change," but also how he later realized that "the takeaway" was, "'Oh, man,' that caused an incredible amount of division in our country."
He's thus avoiding making an endorsement this time "because [his] goal is to bring our country together!"
“I’m not going to [endorse anyone]. I wouldn't do that because my goal is to bring our country together.” - @TheRock
— The Will Cain Show (@WillCainShow_) April 5, 2024
On his 2020 endorsement of President Biden and if he will endorse anyone for 2024
Watch the full episode with @willcain here: https://t.co/Oe2YhxU0Mm pic.twitter.com/oQGZGHjIZl
The Rock is one person, to be sure. But he's not the only one unhappy with the state of the country right now. According to RealClearPolling, just 25.8 percent think the country is moving in the right direction, while 64.4 percent say we're on the wrong track.
Then there's the Wednesday release from Gallup about how voters feel differently about Biden and Trump in 2024 than they did in 2020. "Biden Bests Trump on Likability; Trump Seen as Better Leader," the headline reads, which means Trump has the edge on what voters should really be caring about come not just November, but the future of the country. This goes back to how Johnson and Cain were talking about "the state of America." One could certainly say we need a better leader to get to that better point for America. The subheadline also tellingly mentions that "Biden's character ratings worse than in 2020; Trump's are unchanged."
Per data from a September 14-28, 2020 survey and a March 1-20, 2024 survey of Americans, Biden went down by 13 points in that while 52 percent in 2020 said he "can manage the government effectively," just 39 percent say so now. This means Trump went from a slight disadvantage when 48 percent people said so in 2020, to an advantage on the issue, as 49 percent say so now.
Trump also went from having a slight disadvantage in how 49 percent in 2020 said Biden "displays good judgment in a crisis," while 44 percent said so about Trump at the time. However, just 40 percent say so about Biden in 2024, while 45 percent now say so about Trump.
Where Trump enjoys his biggest lead is when it comes to whether respondents feel the candidate "is a strong and decisive leader." Trump had that advantage in 2020 (56-46 percent), and still lost the election, but it's even higher in 2024. Just 38 percent in 2024 think that Biden is that kind of leader, while 57 percent say so about Trump.
Biden went down in all areas, even in the ones where he still has an advantage over Trump, who also went down in some issues, but by smaller numbers.
Biden went down 9 points in how 66 percent found him "likable" in 2020, but 57 percent do so now. He still has an advantage over Trump on this issue, though. Trump went from 45-42 percent on the issue.
Forty-six percent now say Biden "is honest and trustworthy," when 52 percent did in 2020. Thirty-five percent now say Trump is, when 40 percent did so in 2020.
The poll also highlights how Independents — who contributed to Biden's victory in 2020 — and even Biden's fellow Democrats have given the president lower marks than they did in 2020. Republicans are unchanged in a lot of ways, but they like Biden even less:
Fewer independents now than in 2020 say Biden possesses each of the six characteristics rated in both years, with the declines ranging from seven to 19 points. The largest decline is for being able to manage government effectively, down from 53% to 34%.
Democrats are less likely now than in 2020 to say Biden displays good judgment in a crisis, is a strong and decisive leader, can manage government effectively and cares about the needs of people like them. On these three characteristics, the declines have been nine to 13 points.
Republicans’ ratings of Biden are largely unchanged, except for a 14-point decline in being likable. In 2020, 40% of Republicans thought Biden was likable.
Could this all have an affect on 2024? The write-up highlights the differences, and the "Bottom Line" mentions:
The 2024 election will differ from the 2020 Trump-Biden contest in one important way: Voters today have significantly less-positive views of Biden overall and of his personal qualities now than four years ago. That might put Biden and Trump on a more level playing field than was the case in 2020. The current election environment could be more similar to 2016, when Trump and Hillary Clinton were the least-liked pair of major-party candidates to face off in an election.
The March survey was conducted with 1,016 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
All of this could very well be examined in the larger context that the 2020 coalition is not where the Biden reelection campaign and Democrats want or need it to be. Democratic strategist James Carville has been warning about this, speaking especially about non-white young male voters.
Over at our sister site of HotAir, Duane Patterson referenced this Gallup poll in a piece that's particularly worth reading, "Team Biden: You Bet We're Prepared to Lose." The article focused on admittances from a profile piece that the Washington Post did on Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the Biden reelection campaign manager. It was actually titled, "Nervous about November? Imagine being Biden’s campaign manager."
From Gallup's results, to the sentiments of 2020 Biden supporters like Johnson, if enough people switch from Biden to Trump, that could help Trump become the 45th and 47th president. As Susie Moore at our sister site RedState mentioned, there's "a silver lining" in this election, as both men have a record to run on, and it looks like this could really benefit Trump here. "For the first time in over a century, Americans have the opportunity to choose between two men with contrasting presidential records," she writes.
The current RCP aggregate shows that Trump is still ahead of Biden, for a lead of +1.1, with 46.9 percent to Biden's 45.8 percent.