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Less Than a Week Away From the Ohio U.S. Senate Primary, Here's What Polling Says

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  March 14, 2024 9:00 AM

Donald Trump and Joe Biden have already clinched their nominations as a result of Tuesday's voting contests, but there's still other key primaries in more states. Next Tuesday brings us to the Ohio Republican Senate primary, with three candidates running to challenge Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, a particularly vulnerable incumbent, in November. 

On Wednesday, Emerson College released their poll they did with The Hill showing that a plurality of voters--at 32 percent--are undecided. Among the three Republican candidates though, state Sen. Matt Dolan is now in the lead with 26 percent support. Businessman Bernie Moreno has 23 percent support while Secretary of State Frank LaRose has 16 percent support.

Dolan addressed such momentum in a statement for Townhall. "Polls go up and down, but what remains consistent is my focus on Ohio. That's why I’m working every day to EARN the support of my fellow Republicans. I have a record of advancing conservative policies that protect freedom and work for Ohio. That’s why we have the momentum," he said. 

The trend is pretty fascinating here. With polls being done last November, January, and now March, the "undecided/someone else" category has enjoyed a majority or plurality support. Each man has enjoyed more support than the others in one poll. For instance, LaRose had 18 percent in November to Dolan's 15 percent and Moreno's 10 percent support. In January, Moreno had 22 percent support to Dolan's 21 percent support and Dolan's 15 percent. 

"Overall, Dolan is the third candidate to lead the Republican Primary ballot this year in Emerson polls: LaRose led in November, Moreno surged in January, and now Dolan has voters’ attention," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, is quoted as saying. "The shifting dynamics have left many a significant number of voters undecided with less than a week until election day."

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LaRose, however, is deterred. Ben Kindel, a spokesman for the campaign told Townhall that "We are confident Frank will be Ohio’s next U.S. Senator. Ohio voters want the person that they know they can trust and is a proven conservative. That’s Frank LaRose."

The poll also shows that Brown enjoys a lead over all three of the Republicans running to challenge him. While such a lead is bigger than it was in January, it's much more narrow than last November. Brown leads Dolan 37-34 percent with 22 percent undecided, while he leads LaRose 39-33 percent with 21 percent undecided, and leads Moreno 39-34 percent with 21 percent undecided.

Ohio's U.S. Senate race is still a "Toss-Up," and for good reason. Brown is the only statewide elected Democrat left in Ohio, and Trump won the state by about 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. He already endorsed Moreno last December, and will be holding a rally for him on Saturday. Especially if Moreno becomes the nominee, it will be interesting to see how Trump's coattails play a role. 

Sure enough, Trump enjoys 50 percent to Biden's 41 percent with 9 percent undecided. When undecided voters choose who they're leaning towards, Trump enjoys 55 percent support to Biden's 45 percent support.

The poll was conducted March 7-1 with 1,300 registered voters, 443 of them who said they plan to vote in the Republican primary, There's a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

Dolan this week enjoyed both a surge in the polls and the endorsement from Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. He's also received the endorsements from former Sen. Rob Portman and East Palestine Mayor Trent Conaway. 

The Moreno campaign is actually using that support from DeWine against him, especially when it comes to support for Ukraine. "The America-Last wing is saying the quiet part out loud. DeWine is backing Dolan because he is more focused on funding Ukraine than solving our problems here at home," said Moreno spokeswoman Reagan McCarthy. "The contrast in this primary could not be clearer: Dolan's priority is to other countries, not to America."

Jessica Taylor at Cook Political Report believes that the race is now between Moreno and Dolan. "One Week Out, Ohio Senate GOP Primary Still up for Grabs Despite Trump Endorsement," she wrote in a Tuesday analysis. She also reposted the Emerson College poll while sharing her piece.

Speaking about Trump's campaign appearance, she called it "quite possible that late push will be enough to get Moreno across the finish line, and several sources have told us that once undecided voters learn about Trump’s endorsement, Moreno’s polling numbers rise," adding "[i]t's a proven tactic we’ve seen Trump deploy time and time again."

She also spoke to Dolan's endorsements, and how he could fare against Brown:

In the past week, Dolan picked up key endorsements from Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman. Though they are both firmly in the more establishment lane of the GOP and are not exactly beloved by the conservative MAGA base, it’s a way for Dolan to position himself as the “governing conservative” in the race.

Were Dolan to win the nomination, it could alter the general election calculus in what we view as Democrats’ most vulnerable race on the 2024 map: The more centrist, pragmatic Dolan could end up mounting the strongest challenge to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Even though Taylor believes the race to be between Moreno and Dolan, she spoke to the role LaRose could play as well:

The question is whether the triumvirate of Trump/Vance/Jordan could be, well, trumped by a more moderate coalition of DeWine/Portman voters in a GOP primary. That’s not something that has happened often in the Trump era, and Moreno’s Club for Growth allies are up on air today with a new spot that highlights Dolan’s past criticisms of Trump.

The answer will lie in the makeup of the electorate, which is still uncertain. Like he did in 2022, Dolan is expected to perform strongest in the three C’s. But he struggled with rural voters. If rural voters consolidate behind Moreno, that could outweigh any strength Dolan has in the suburbs, which are decidedly less Republican. And then there’s figuring out how much of the vote LaRose — who still has name ID after having been elected twice statewide despite not having money to compete — gets, and whether his share eats more into Dolan’s or Moreno’s.

...

There are still more paths for Moreno to win this race than there are for Dolan — particularly if he and his allies can continue to remind people of the Trump endorsement, which will happen with the earned press from the Trump visit — than there are for Dolan. This could end up being a repeat of 2022, when Dolan had late momentum in the race but finished in third. However, that was a seven-way field; this time, there are just three candidates on the ballot. Whether LaRose’s voters stick with him or bail for Dolan, especially if they are the type to be swayed by DeWine and Portman’s blessing, could be the deciding factor come next Tuesday. 

The Moreno campaign also highlighted how Dolan's fellow state legislators have taken issue with his record. State Sen. Niraj Antani posted that Dolan "is simply not a Republican. He’s not even a moderate Republican. He’s a Democrat," and expressed his support for Moreno. 

The campaign also highlighted statements of concern from other Republican state legislators, including state Rep. Gary Click, state Rep. Rodney Creech, and state Re. Jennifer Gross. 

There's also involvement from Senate Democrats, who now appear to be boosting Moreno. Such a tactic was used in the 2022 midterms, from both House and Senate Democrats. 

"In a statement, Moreno campaign spokesperson Reagan McCarthy invoked Democrats’ general feeling in 2016 that Trump would be the easiest candidate for Hillary Clinton to beat. 'The same thing is going to happen to Sherrod Brown this year,' McCarthy said," the piece mentioned.

Dolan's campaign also aggressively pushed back on what they say is election interference. "National Democrats are putting their money behind Bernie Moreno in the waning days of this primary because he is damaged, unelectable and incapable of defeating Sherrod Brown. Ohio Republicans will reject this attempt by Sherrod Brown’s allies to meddle in the primary," Christopher Maloney, Dolan's camapign consultant told Townhall. 

Meanwhile, the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) has decided to not get involved in this primary, as Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) shared in a CBS News interview last July, as he trusts any one of the three to be able to defeat Brown.