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Poll Shows Even Worse Numbers for Biden Following SOTU

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  March 13, 2024 4:00 PM

It's been almost a week since President Joe Biden's State of the Union Address, memorably regarded as "fiery" by the mainstream media. As we immediately saw, the idea that the president exceeded expectations didn't last long, as Biden was back to looking and sounding confused the very next day. On Monday, we covered how an ABC News/Ipsos poll showed a plurality of respondents didn't even watch the speech, but that there wasn't a much-needed boost for Biden, as he's still underwater in every issue polled, some of them significantly so. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump also enjoyed a lead on who Americans trust to do a better job. Since then, an even more problematic poll has been released.

Wednesday brought us the Yahoo News/YouGov poll with a headline warning, "No State of the Union bump for Biden." In fact, not only did Biden see no bump, but it was Trump who did. 

Although the article highlights how Trump's lead of 46 percent support is still a statistical tie with Biden's 44 percent given it's within the margin of error, this is nevertheless terrible news for the incumbent president. A post from InteractivePolls also noted that Trump is seeing a positive trend in the polls after less than a year ago it was Biden who was leading.

The article painted a somber picture for Biden's reelection campaign. It also began by mentioning praise from pundits, but only to draw a contrast from what the voters think:

Pundits may have fawned over President Biden’s State of the Union address last Thursday, praising it as a “homerun” performance from a “fiery, powerful, vigorous guy” that would ease nagging fears about his age and vitality.

But voters barely seem to have noticed.

A new Yahoo News/YouGov survey of 1,482 U.S. adults, conducted in the days immediately following Biden’s big speech, shows zero improvement in perceptions of the president — or in his standing against former President Donald Trump.

Before the State of the Union, Trump (45%) and Biden (44%) were statistically tied in a head-to-head 2024 matchup, according to the previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll from late January.

The article also highlights the "age issue" that Biden faces, which has been a problem for him in this poll and others. Even his fellow Democrats worry about his capabilities regarding serving another term. 

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Jokes abound as to whether the president was on some sort of performance drugs to get through his address, especially given his energy level and how late it was. There may be a point to that, though, given a psychiatrist told The Washington Times that the president was displaying signs of being on something. "If you look at how Joe Biden usually is--slow and stumbling--compared to how he was during the State of the Union--fiery and angry--these are signs that are typical for someone taking Adderall or any amphetamine," Dr. Carol Lieberman told the outlet. 

"But far from moving the needle in Biden’s favor on the age issue, his State of the Union — a widely viewed and, by most accounts, energetic display--appears to have had no effect whatsoever," the write-up mentioned, going on to state critical findings, and the trend from past polls:

But far from moving the needle in Biden’s favor on the age issue, his State of the Union — a widely viewed and, by most accounts, energetic display — appears to have had no effect whatsoever:

  • Just 29% of Americans now say Biden, 81, is fit to serve another term as president, unchanged from 29% in January.

  • Most Americans (51%) still say Biden’s age is a “big problem” affecting his “fitness for the presidency,” also unchanged since January.

  • Only 30% of Americans say Biden has been “mostly in charge” as president, while 53% say he’s been “mostly passive” — compared to 28% and 54%, respectively, when the question was last asked in November.

What’s holding Biden back here? It may be that the public has made up its mind about his age — or that he’ll need more than a single speech to shake things up.

When it comes to the possibility "that the public has made up its mind about his age," it's worth reminding that Biden isn't getting any younger. He'll be turning 82 years old not long after Election Day 2024.

It's also worth watching what Biden's fellow Democrats say about him, especially regarding that age issue mentioned above, though that's not the only concern for Biden. This is especially the case as polls tend to show that respondents are less concerned with Trump's health and mental capabilities, and how Trump has more support from his fellow Republicans than Biden does from Democrats.

When it comes to reactions to the address, the write-up notes Democrats "didn’t really react at all," also highlighting how "61% of Democrats say Biden's age is at least a small problem affecting his presidential fitness, also unchanged since January."

As do other polls, this one shows Biden doing poorly on most topics addressed during the address, among those who said they watched any of the speech or read or saw any news coverage. Even on his best issue of abortion, only a plurality agree with him, 46 percent, while 36 percent disagree. Americans are evenly split on Trump, with 45 percent each saying they agree and disagree with Biden's remarks on his opponent. 

Otherwise, those who watched or read about the speech are more likely to disagree with the president. By 47-45 percent, such respondents said they disagreed with Biden on the economy, 42-39 percent disagreed on crime, 48-38 percent disagreed on inflation, and 42-33 percent disagreed on "The Israeli-Palestinian conflict." It's noteworthy this issue saw the largest share of respondents who said they were "not sure."

In the case of immigration, 50 percent of respondents actually disagree with Biden's remarks on that topic, while just 37 percent agree. 

"Agreement with what Biden said about specific issues, meanwhile, closely matches his corresponding issue approval ratings — including on inflation (38% agree, 48% disagree); immigration (37% agree, 50% disagree); the economy (42% agree, 47% disagree); and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (33% agree, 42% disagree). This suggests, again, that the speech itself did little to change views of Biden's presidency," the write-up mentions. 

This poll was conducted March 8-11 with 1,482 U.S. adults and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. 

A poll from The Economist/YouGov was also released on Wednesday, and that too asked about respondents' thoughts on the State of the Union Address. By 48-43 percent, respondents who read about or watched the speech had a positive versus negative view, with those numbers being at 49-46 percent among voters who read or watched the speech. However, 33 percent of overall respondents and 36 percent of registered voters said they had a "very negative" view. 

A plurality of voters, 32 percent, and of all respondents, 30 percent, also said it was "one of the worst" addresses they had heard.

Similar to the Yahoo News/YouGov poll, it really doesn't look like change is coming for Biden on this one, something he could likely seriously benefit from. A whopping 86 percent of voters and 82 percent of respondents said the address "mostly confirmed what I already think" about "the president and political issues."

Such a poll also showed Trump with 44 percent support to Biden's 42 percent support among registered voters. Trump has a larger edge in that 44 percent of voters and 45 percent of all respondents expect him to win in November, while 37 percent of registered voters and just 33 percent of all respondents expect Biden to win in November. 

With these two polls, Trump has now grown his lead over Biden for November to +2.4, according to RealClearPolitics, with 47.5 percent support to Biden's 45.1 percent support.

More bad news comes for Biden in that he has a 55 percent disapproval rating among registered voters, while 42 percent approve. 

That poll was conducted March 10-12 with 1,559 U.S. adults, including 1,367 registered voters. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The bad news for Biden isn't just clear in this handful of recent polls, though they are pretty bad. As Doug P. pointed out for our sister site of Twitchy, "Imagine How Bad These Record Low Numbers Would Be for Biden If He Didn't Have the Media on His Side."

Doug also highlighted some new lows for Biden in his overall approval rating for March 12, which was 1,148 days in office. With a disapproval of 56.5 percent, while just 37.4 percent approve, Biden is at a net -19.2 percent, which has him faring worse than Trump for sure.