Tipsheet

Here's Why the Haley Campaign Is Pretty Excited About This New National Poll

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  February 23, 2024 10:01 AM

The Haley campaign is blasting out a new national poll from Marquette Law School, which shows their candidate vastly outperforming Donald Trump in a hypothetical match-up against Joe Biden.  Yes, Trump leads Biden head-to-head in the survey by four points, but Haley absolutely blows Biden out.  A national Quinnipiac survey published earlier in the week showed Trump trailing Biden by four points, while Haley led Biden by three points -- a net over-performance of seven percentage points for the former South Carolina governor.  The Trump/Haley vs. Biden gap is even more pronounced in the MU Law numbers, at 14 percentage points.  She's up 18 in this data set:

A lot of Americans want Biden gone, but many of them aren't excited about replacing him with Trump.  Haley said on Tuesday that she has no plans to get out of the race any time soon, even if she handily loses her home state this coming weekend, as expected.  She's been talking up the open primary states of Super Tuesday as her next frontier, even as she trails substantially across the board in those places.  Because Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, let's examine more of his numbers.  As has been the case for months, things are looking rather bleak at the moment for Biden.  Look at these issue advantage statistics, per the MU Law survey:

Immigration/border security - Trump 54% (+28) Biden 26%.

The Economy - Trump 53% (+18) Biden 35%.

Israel/Hamas war - Trump 47% (+17) Biden 30%.

Foreign Relations - Trump 46% (+7) Biden 39%

Healthcare - Biden 43% (+5) Trump 38%.

Abortion - Biden 43% (+6) Trump 37%.

Medicare/SSA - Biden 41% (+2) Trump 39%.

Trump is up big on the border, the economy, and the Middle East conflict.  He's also ahead on foreign policy in general.  Biden holds narrow, single-digit leads on healthcare, abortion and entitlement programs.  A new KFF national poll that also has Trump ahead of Biden overall by four points also shows Trump leading on the economy by exactly 18 points -- while trailing on healthcare by exactly five points.  Remarkably consistent results:

Of course, it's the states that matter.  Here's a slate of fresh Emerson polls from various battlegrounds.  Results:

Arizona: Trump +3 head to head with Biden, Trump +6 with other candidates on the ballot

Georgia: Trump +6

Nevada: Trump +6 head to head, Trump +10 with other candidates on the ballot

North Carolina: Trump +3 head to head, Trump +9 with other candidates on the ballot

Pennsylvania: Trump +2 head to head, Trump +5 with other candidates on the ballot 

In all of these polls, Kamala Harris trails by eight-to-ten points, with (relatively unknown) Gavin Newsom sagging further behind.  I'll leave you with this separate poll, out of critical Michigan:

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