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Will Dean Phillips Matter in This Race?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  January 19, 2024 2:00 PM

After Donald Trump emerged from the Iowa Republican Caucus with a massive victory, the next test is Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. Trump will likely pull off a win against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as enough polls show him with a significant lead. New Hampshire is tricky for Democrats, too, though, as President Joe Biden's name won't officially appear on the ballot, since the primary is taking place despite the DNC having designated South Carolina as the party's first primary state on February 3. Biden is looking to win via a write-in campaign, though he'll have to fend off Marianne Williamson and Minnesota's Rep. Dean Phillips. 

For months, Phillips had been calling for a primary challenger to Biden before finally jumping in himself last October. It hasn't been going well. Not only is Phillips not gaining traction in the polls, but he's also at odds with the DNC. He's been mocked over social media, too, with X trends such as "#DropOutDean," as he continues to trend on Thursday. He left his House leadership position last October, and the following month revealed he would not seek reelection. 

RealClearPolling currently has Biden with a lead of +63.0 in the primary, as he enjoys 70 percent support. Williamson has 7.7 percent support, and Phillips is at just 3.3 percent.

New Hampshire is a slightly different story, as Biden is up by +48.2, with 58 percent support. Phillips comes in a distant second, with 9.8 percent support, according to polls included by RealClearPolling. Again, Biden has to win via a write-in campaign.

Phillips has gone for a more hopeful take about his campaign's chances on his X account, and that includes using the hashtag "#DropInDean," especially when it comes to an American Research Group Inc. poll showing him with 28 percent support. 

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Phillips has highlighted in particular his support among Independent voters, who make up a considerable portion of the electorate in New Hampshire. Among that demographic, Phillips enjoys a plurality of support, with 46 percent. Biden is at 32 percent, and 13 percent of those voters say they're undecided.

The poll was conducted January 12-15 with 600 likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, which included 148 undeclared/Independent voters. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

When it comes to those chances, Fox News published an opinion piece from David Marcus, who pointed out, "New Hampshire primary could send Biden a message he doesn't want to hear," highlighting Biden's decision not to compete in the state and how it actually conflicts with his message of protecting democracy.

He writes:

President Biden and the Democrats have gravely warned America that democracy is on the ballot in 2024, but if so, why are they disenfranchising Democratic voters in the New Hampshire primary, and how is he performing so poorly there anyway? 

The party of Jefferson and Jackson is punishing the Granite State for refusing to allow South Carolina to take its place as the Democrats’ first-in-the-nation primary, and the punishment is that their votes simply won’t count. 

...

Pay no attention to the New Hampshire voters behind the curtain, the party bellowed, but the problem is, we can all see through it. 

And here’s the thing, we in the news media, not to mention voters across the country are under absolutely no obligation to ignore it if Phillips, who nobody had heard of two weeks ago, puts up a big number. 

Sorry team Biden, that is a big story whether your guy chose to put his name on the ballot or not. 

...

New Hampshire’s motto is "Live Free or Die," and these people are going to vote whether the Democratic National Committee likes it or not, which, let's be honest, is rather refreshing. 

Biden insists that democracy is on the ballot this year because people like democracy a lot more than they like Biden, but actions speak louder than words.

CNN covered the contest in New Hampshire as being about how "Biden and New Hampshire Democrats have a lot riding on a low-key write-in campaign."

That piece makes a curious point about how Biden's campaign is regarding the race there:

The Biden campaign has been keeping the write-in effort beyond arm’s length – and not just to abide by rules against coordination with an outside effort, or to stick by the president’s convictions about moving the first approved primary to South Carolina. Expecting a win out of a situation in which he’s not on the ballot has always seemed iffy at best, and aides wanted to preserve their ability to dismiss the results if they do turn out to be humiliating.

Officially, the Biden campaign will not celebrate a win. They will not spin a loss. Whatever happens on Tuesday, Wednesday will go by without the Wilmington headquarters acknowledging it. The campaign is declining comment on the effort, even anonymously, to anyone who asks.

CNN also mentions support that Phillips has from Andrew Yang, who ran against Biden in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary and is now the co-chair of the Forward Party. Yang endorsed Phillips on Thursday night. That endorsement is now a pinned post to Yang's X account.

While Yang spoke positively of Phillips when it comes to that endorsement, he also issued warnings about Biden and the country under his presidency. "The last 4 years have not been great. This is a difficult and trying time. Americans across the country are questioning whether our future will be brighter than our past," he mentioned almost at the very start. 

Yang also brought up Biden's low approval ratings, age, and his chances when it comes to beating Trump. Yang was even a surrogate for Biden in 2020, but as he expressed, "[W]hile [Biden] was the right candidate 4 years ago, he is not now."

In speaking about Biden's age, Yang even quipped, "It will be hard to reinvent grandpa."

He even used his Valley Forge speech from earlier this month about the anniversary of January 6 against Biden. "He is failing the George Washington test that he referenced recently in his Valley Forge speech – knowing when to pass the baton and walk away.  His spirit of service has become ego and stubbornness that are leading us toward disaster. Sometimes, the highest form of leadership is stepping aside," Yang said about the president. 

Phillips also had a clever ad against Biden, as Nick Arama at our sister site of RedState highlighted. The one-minute long ad features Bigfoot looking for Biden in New Hampshire, "even at the Democratic primary debate" that featured Phillips and Williamson, but not Biden. He did keep seeing Phillips, though, Bigfoot shared, "everywhere," and "actually cared about what people were telling him" as the creature expressed shock about "a politician that cares," which is "scarcer than Joe Biden in New Hampshire."

"Why write him in, when he's written us off," Bigfoot asks at the conclusion of the ad, speaking about the campaign to still hand Biden a win. The ad also advertised the website against Biden of NotinNewHampshire.com, which questions "Where's Joe?"

Phillips has also been concentrating on highlighting concerns with Biden's chances as well, including when it comes to the incumbent president's chances against Trump in the increasingly likely rematch we'll be seeing. That includes in Georgia, where Biden is losing support.

Phillips referred to the Peach State as "a key battleground state," and given that Biden and Democratic Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won there in 2020, with Warnock having won reelection in 2022, indeed it is. It's also been included in the polls showing Trump leading in battleground states, including in the University of Georgia/Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll where Trump is up 45 percent to Biden's 37 percent.

Guy also covered the poll when highlighting how bad the state is looking for Democrats when it comes to the imperiled charges that Fulton County DA Fani Willis is bringing against Trump and a slew of co-defendants over the 2020 election. 

Phillips went so far as to warn "the delusion is disastrous" in his post. 

If and when Trump wins Georgia and/or the election, Phillips can tell his fellow Democrats "I told you so," though from a much different role in the party than he currently holds.