President Joe Biden is not where he needs to be right now for an incumbent insisting he's still running for reelection, and he knows it. This is especially true on the economy. We're just days away from entering an election year, with the 2024 presidential election year looking more and more likely to be a rematch from 2020 between him and former and potentially future President Donald Trump. While both men still have to be formally nominated by their parties, there's already been plenty of polls out there surveying this hypothetical matchup, as we've covered at length. The polls also show how it's a matchup that many Americans say they don't want, but the likelihood of facing Trump once more, especially since he believes he can beat him again, appears to be motivating Biden to stay in the race.
When it comes to the reality of such polls, RealClearPolling (RCP) has Trump up with a lead of +2.3, as of Wednesday morning. That exact number has fluctuated, but Trump has been steadily leading for months now.
Spencer covered earlier this month how The Washington Post had the scoop on the president's reaction to his poll numbers. Joe and First Lady Jill Biden have been reportedly "frustrated by the president’s low approval rating." According to RCP, that number is currently at 40.5 percent, while 55.9 percent disapprove.
Biden's reaction is becoming newsworthy once again because he's still frustrated, as The New York Post covered. He's facing a 37.2 percent approval rating on the economy, while 59.7 percent disapprove. He's facing a 32.4 percent approval rating on inflation, while 64.4 percent disapprove of how he's handling the issue.
On Saturday, as he was headed to Camp David for Christmas, a reporter dared to ask Biden a question about the economy, which multiple polls show to be a top issue and a great cause of concern for voters. "What’s your outlook on the economy next year," a reporter asked. "All good,” Biden snapped in response. "Take a look. Start reporting it the right way."
"What's your outlook on the economy next year?"
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) December 23, 2023
BIDEN: "All good. Take a look! Start reporting it the right way." pic.twitter.com/dpRcDiq16S
What does "reporting it the right way" mean to the Biden administration? Providing favorable coverage and only favorable coverage? The mainstream media is already particularly friendly to Democrats, and yet the president himself expects to be granted even more of an assist than he's already received.
Biden as well as members of his cabinet prefer to jump at the chance to highlight when inflation goes down--no matter by how much--and place blame on other factors when inflation goes up.
No matter how much inflation may be going down at any point during the Biden administration, though, that doesn't change how it was lower when Trump was in office. A GoBankingRates piece from last month shows the inflation rate for every president from Lyndon B. Johnson to Biden. Of those presidents, Biden has the third highest inflation rate of 5 percent, behind only Presidents Richard Nixon's 10.9 percent and Jimmy Carter's 11.8 percent. Trump experienced an inflation rate of 1.4 percent, the second lowest on the list behind President George W. Bush's 0 percent.
When it comes to the November numbers, Spencer noted earlier this month that "the Consumer Price Index registered another 0.1 percent increase in the costs of goods and services paid by Americans for a 12-month increase of 3.1 percent."
There's more bad news there in that as one of the many recent polls surveying how Americans feel on the economy and inflation, from CBS News, showed that 60 percent of Americans believe that the president can control inflation. That number was significant but not as high in June 1979, according to a write-up from CBS News, when it was at 45 percent, while 47 percent said the president could not.
If past is prologue for the 2024 election, Biden could end up losing just like Carter did to Ronald Reagan in 1980. His poll numbers have certainly been as poor.
Beyond Biden's own expression of frustration when he actually spoke to a reporter on Saturday, others close to the president are sharing their thoughts. The Hill, which also covered the response that Biden gave on his way to Camp David, put out another piece earlier that same day, with the headline "Frustration builds around Biden amid negative poll numbers."
As the piece revealed:
Some have suggested Biden 81, is having trouble convincing a key part of the Democratic base that it should have faith in his leadership after various disappointments, ranging from student loans to rising rents and mortgage prices. The Israel-Hamas war, a divisive issue in the Democratic Party and on college campuses, is hurting him further.
Sources told The Hill the president has gathered advisers, both internal White House aides and external personal confidants, for meetings to discuss Trump, the negative polling and how to effectively message the president’s accomplishments.
One Biden ally said meetings have taken place because of “deep frustration” over polls but that it did not reflect a panic over the president’s prospects.
“The meetings are intended to discuss messaging on his age and his accomplishments. There has been concern among his inner circle that the messaging has not been strong or consistent enough to break through with the public,” the Biden ally said.
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“Yes, it’s frustrating. I have heard many theories as to why the message is not connecting. None convince me or make me feel better,” said Ivan Zapien, a former Democratic National Committee official, adding though that he still thinks “Biden can win this election.”
“The polls will tighten as they always do as we get closer to the election and people start weighing their options. But it’s going to be an ugly landing,” he said.
...
Someone in the Biden orbit also told The Hill part of the frustration is the disproportionate media focus on the polls that show Biden losing while ignoring polls that show him winning.
The White House has long argued the 2024 election will be a close one but that as voters begin to compare Biden with Trump, things will move in its favor. They’ve largely dismissed polls as being meaningless this far away from the election while noting pundits have previously counted out Biden only to see him rise to victory.
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One Democratic House aide said White House aides haven’t brought up the approval rating in conversations with the Hill.
“Most of the conversations I see are the ones happening in public,” the aide said, adding that privately, Democrats know they have work to do to tout Biden’s accomplishments ahead of the election.
When it comes to the complaint that not enough focus is being placed on polls where Biden is winning, they do exist, but there aren't too many of them. He's up +1 against Trump according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll.
Further, The New York Times was all too happy to tout how Biden was slightly ahead with likely voters in The New York Times/Siena College poll, even while Trump was much further ahead when registered voters were polled. The outlet also spent multiple pieces trying to explain away Biden's concerning poll numbers using the narrative that young people don't like how the president has handled the Israel-Hamas war.
While The Hill claims above that the president's need to discuss polls with his allies "did not reflect a panic over the president’s prospects," Professor David Faris writing for the far-left Slate has a much different take. "There Is No Precedent for How Bad Biden’s Polls Are Right Now," his headline warned, as his subheadline claimed "It's even worse than it looks."
"Panic is entirely warranted," Faris went on to write in his piece as well.