On Tuesday, Donald Trump endorsed Bernie Moreno in the U.S. Senate race for Ohio, where Republicans hope to unseat Democrat Sherrod Brown. The move was certainly not a surprise, given how much Trump has talked up Moreno for the past several months and the connections they already have had. Ohio is one of the top pickup opportunities, if not the top pickup opportunities for 2024, a year when the map is looking particularly favorable for Republicans, especially compared to 2022. For this race, the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) indicated over the summer that they're not getting involved, as he's confident any of the candidates in that race could beat Brown. That's not quite the situation in Daines' state of Montana, though, which is the other key pickup Senate seat, with Democrat Jon Tester running for reelection.
Daines has endorsed Tim Sheehy for the Republican nomination, a former Navy SEAL as well as CEO and founder of Bridger Aerospace. He might not be the only one running, though, as Rep. Matt Rosendale is looking for another chance, despite having lost to Tester in 2018 by 3.5 points. Trump won the state in 2016 by 20.5 points and in 2020 by 16.4 points. Daines also won reelection in 2020 by 10 points.
CNN put out quite the headline recently about the race, noting that "Trump looms over key Montana Senate race as hard-right Rosendale may upend GOP plans."
The piece begins by detailing how Rosendale was seen fundraising at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month, and how he encountered the former president, "described by sources as brief and polite." Rosendale also posted praise for Trump, too, though he had been slow to endorse him for president again, waiting until December 11 to do so.
The report lays out some of the complex options:
As Rosendale is now taking steps to mount a Senate primary run and promote himself as a MAGA warrior, top Republicans are hoping to shut down any hope that the conservative hardliner could use Trump as a springboard to the nomination.
GOP leaders are closing ranks behind Republican Tim Sheehy, whom they believe stands the best shot at defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in a race central to the battle for the next Senate majority. And they view Rosendale, who lost by 3 points against Tester in 2018, as the kind of unreliable general election candidate who has thwarted their chances at the Senate majority in a number of recent election cycles.
But if Rosendale runs against Sheehy, he would have a serious shot at winning the GOP primary as he bills himself as the rock-ribbed conservative in the race — especially if he stays in Trump’s good graces.
So Republican leaders want it to be abundantly clear: It was Sheehy who endorsed Trump months ago, while Rosendale waited until mid-December — underscoring Trump’s enduring sway in primary races as they hope that his desire for loyalty will trump all else.
“Well, Tim Sheehy endorsed President Trump in April. It’s a pretty late endorsement for Matt Rosendale,” Sen. Steve Daines, the Montana Republican who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is backing Sheehy’s candidacy, told CNN. “This time, he sees the inevitable that President Trump will be the nominee. I like Matt Rosendale. I hope he stays in the House and builds seniority.”
Trump had privately told Rosendale over the summer that he wouldn’t win his endorsement if he ran for the Senate, according to sources familiar with the call.
But if Trump were to ultimately endorse Sheehy, that move could undermine Rosendale, who has been a controversial figure in Washington and joined seven other Republicans and all Democrats to vote for the ouster of Kevin McCarthy from the speakership.
If Trump stays neutral, as some of his advisers believe he may, it could give an opening to Rosendale, who is likely to face a deluge of attack ads from groups aligned with GOP leaders but who might benefit from outside organizations now pummeling Sheehy on the airwaves.
...
“We prefer a contested primary,” said Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman.
But in Montana, Peters wouldn’t characterize Rosendale as a weaker candidate, arguing that Sheehy has “vulnerabilities that will become quite apparent as the campaign goes on.”
“I don’t think it matters one way or the other (whether it’s Rosendale or Sheehy). Tester has already beaten him once. He can beat him again,” Peters said of Rosendale.
...
Daines said that he believed that — based on polls he’s reviewed — that “Sheehy would beat” Rosendale in a potential primary.
“So I hope Matt stays in that House seat,” Daines said. Asked why Rosendale wasn’t listening: “You’re going to have to ask him.”
Where it gets even moore complex is that Trump is reportedly making less endorsements this time around then he did in 2022, instead preferring to focus on his own campaign and not wanting to alienate voters. As the report also mentioned, "Trump has privately told many of his advisers and allies that he believes he made too many endorsements during the midterm elections last year and is planning to stay out of many of the upcoming 2024 congressional fights, three sources familiar with the discussions said."
The piece does make reference to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-CA) ouster from October, but there's more to the story than what's mentioned in the CNN report. The day that McCarthy lost the gavel, there was chatter about Rosendale's chances for the Senate, as TheMessenger's Dan Mercia shared footage of Rosendale indicating in a call to supporters that he had actually prayed for a small majority in 2022.
Rosenale said he "was praying each evening for a small majority, because I've recognized that small majority was the only way that we were going to advance a conservative agenda and that if it was the right majority, that if we had six or seven very strong individuals, we would drag the conference over to the right, and we were able to do that!"
Daines responded with a quip that "I didn’t realize that Matt Rosendale and Nancy Pelosi are in the same prayer group." Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) had even stronger words for Rosendale though.
He was referring to this story https://t.co/XW5bU1fOLh
— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) October 3, 2023
Maryland Matt Rosendale prays for Democrats to win elections? Did God answer his prayers in 2018 when Jon Tester humiliated him?
— Tom Cotton (@TomCottonAR) October 4, 2023
This is just one of many, many reasons that Maryland Matt won’t come within a country mile of the Senate. https://t.co/3JNnSyD2Na
Recall how Rosendale wouldn't take a call from Trump when back in January the former president was urging Republicans to vote for McCarthy as speaker. It took 15 rounds for McCarthy gavel, and, thanks to a vote from Rosendale, seven other Republicans, and all Democrats, McCarthy was ousted in October after Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a motion to vacate chair. McCarthy announced earlier this month that he was leaving Congress.
Forecasters currently consider the Montana Senate race to be a "Toss-Up," with the Ohio race also being regatded as a "Toss-Up."