It's happening, folks. Just a few months ago, polls showing former and potentially future President Donald Trump leading current President Joe Biden in a rematch of the 2020 presidential election were written off and dismissed. However, as it's increasingly looking like that's what the 2024 presidential election will be, Trump continues to lead Biden. Regardless of whether this lead will hold – Trump cannot and must not get complicit – polls continue to show good news for Trump and bad news for the incumbent Biden.
As of Monday afternoon, Trump has a +2.2 lead over Biden, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP). That lead has been changing as new polls come out, but the lead looks to have held. The most recent poll comes from The Wall Street Journal, where Trump leads Biden 47 to 43 percent among registered voters. The margin of error is only plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. When other candidates are included, described as "potential third-party and independent candidates," Trump's lead over Biden increases, as he enjoys 37 percent to Biden's 31 percent.
But again, this poll isn't just good news for Trump. It's bad news for Biden. Sure, one takeaway is that Trump leads, but Biden not only trails, he has a new approval rating low. "President Biden's political standing is at its weakest point of his presidency, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds, with voters giving him his lowest job-performance marks and favoring Donald Trump for the first time in a head-to-head test of the likely 2024 presidential matchup," the poll's write-up begins.
Biden has just a 37 percent approval rating, while 61 percent of respondents disapprove. That's a record low and a record high during Biden's presidency, respectively, for the WSJ polling. That's the lowest of almost any poll seen in some time when looking at various polls included by RCP, where Biden's approval rating is more in the upper 30s or low 40s. It's thus brought his overall RCP approval rating down to 39.9 percent, while 56.6 percent disapprove.
"The findings deliver the latest shock for Biden and for Democrats, some of whom have openly fretted about the 81-year-old president's stamina and have increasingly played up warnings of 77-year-old Trump's potential return, casting the Republican as hellbent on retribution and a danger to democracy," the write-up continues.
Then again, the poll highlights another area where it's critical that Trump – assuming he does become the nominee – and the Republican Party cannot afford to let this all go to their head:
Unhappiness with Biden is pervasive in the new survey, though much of it appears among Democratic-leaning groups who might still back the president on Election Day. Only 23% of voters say Biden’s policies have helped them personally, while 53% say they have been hurt by the president’s agenda. By contrast, about half of voters say Trump’s policies when he was president helped them personally, more than the 37% who say they were hurt.
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A Biden campaign looking for opportunities to build support, however, would find a few in the new survey.
Voters see the president as better able than Trump to handle abortion, 44% to 33%, giving him an edge on an issue proven to boost Democratic candidates. Voters who are undecided on the presidential race lean Democratic in other survey questions, suggesting that they could be persuaded to back Biden nearly a year from now.
Similarly, parts of Biden’s 2020 coalition are uncommitted as of now but could return to him by Election Day. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the Journal survey with Democrat Michael Bocian, is keeping a particular eye on the 24% of voters he calls “disaffected Democrats”—those in the party who say inflation, their personal finances or the country overall is moving in the wrong direction. Some 16% of these voters are undecided on their presidential vote, and 7% are backing Trump.
Like most other polls, the economy is a serious issue. Voters rank it as their most important, but also in that they are not happy with Biden's handling of the issue.
As the poll's write-up mentions:
The “disaffected Democrats” are part of a far broader group holding a gloomy view of the economy—a pessimism at odds with many recent indicators of economic strength, such as surging gross domestic product, moderating inflation and an unemployment rate that earlier this year hit its lowest mark since 1969. Employers added a seasonally adjusted 199,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday, a sign that the labor market remains solid.
Two-thirds of voters rate the economy as poor or not good, and two-thirds say the economy has gotten worse in the past two years, during Biden’s time in office. In a more expansive sign of pessimism, 48% say they don’t believe this generation will do better than the one that came before, compared with 44% who say conditions will be better for the current generation.
Economic anxiety appears to weigh heavily on young voters, an important pillar of the Democratic coalition. Less than one-third of voters under age 35 say the economy is in good shape, for example, compared with 40% of those ages 65 and older.
Bocian, the Democratic pollster, said that Biden is falling short with several groups who would consistently vote Democratic—young voters and Black and Latino voters. “They are feeling economically stressed and challenged right now. And they are not showing enthusiasm in the way they were turning out in 2020, 2022,” he said. But with the election a year away, he said, reassembling the Biden coalition “is eminently doable.”
If the "disaffected Democrats" remain that way, then perhaps we could see similar poll numbers as we get closer and closer to Election Day, perhaps a Trump victory. If the economy does improve, however, these polls could indeed have been a situational factor, stressing the importance of not placing too much stock in them so many months away. It's worth keeping in mind that the poll asks about if the election were held "today."
The poll also finds that a plurality, 49 percent of respondents, says they were personally helped by Trump's policies, while just 23 percent say the same about Biden. Thirty-seven percent say Trump's policies hurt them, while a majority, 53 percent, say Biden's policies hurt them.
The economy is still the most important issue for voters, with 21 percent saying as much. Thirteen percent say immigration and no other issue enjoys double-digit support.
Voters were also asked whether they felt Trump or Biden was better able to handle the issue. On the economy, it wasn't close, as 52 percent said Trump and just 35 percent said Biden. The split was even more pronounced for Trump on inflation, who enjoyed 51 percent support on being better able to handle the issue compared to Biden's 30 percent. Forty-seven percent said Trump was better able to handle crime, while 30 percent said Biden. Trump had his widest lead on the issue of border security, with 54 percent saying he'd be better able to handle it, compared to just 24 percent saying Biden would be. Trump's smallest lead is still by double digits, though, as 44 percent believe he'd better handle the Israel-Hamas war, while 32 percent say Biden would.
There are two issues where Biden does better. Forty-four percent believe he'd be better able to handle abortion compared to the 33 percent who say the same about Trump. And 37 percent prefer Biden's "tone in politics" compared to the 31 percent who say as much about Trump.
The 2024 election could look good for the Republican Party overall as the poll shows Republicans perform better than Democrats on the congressional generic ballot. "All other things being equal, if the 2024 election for Congress were held today, would you be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate for Congress?" the poll asked. Thirty-four percent said they'll vote "definitely Republican" compared to the 30 percent who said "definitely Democrat." Combining the "probably" and "definitely" numbers, Republicans have an edge with 46 percent support compared to Democrats' 41 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,500 registered voters and was conducted November 29-December 4. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
In case there's any question as to whether the mainstream media isn't ready to acknowledge these polls are becoming a trend, a CNN headline decided to focus on how "Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical rematch, new poll finds, with a tenth of voters undecided."