It’s a legitimate issue facing the Biden administration, and we don’t have the commander-in-chief who most will trust to carry out this plan should things go belly up in Israel. That’s not to say Israel will collapse when they invade Gaza in their campaign to eradicate Hamas.
Still, the retaliation from her neighbors could be hellacious, which explains the rapid deployment of carrier strike groups and anti-ballistic missile systems to the region. Those deployments of US forces serve as a deterrent and a show of support for the Jewish state, but they’re also there for another potential scenario: rescue missions.
There is a concern that Israel’s impending ground campaign in Gaza could devolve into a regional war, as Iran and Hezbollah, who are the same, have vowed total war if Israel invades the strip. And they’ll have plenty of time to coordinate attacks as this Gaza campaign could take years.
The reports of Hamas’ terror tunnels and the 40,000 terrorists waiting to attack incoming IDF forces indicate this will be a slog. In the crossfire are 600,000 Americans living in Israel and Lebanon. If things go off the rails, and there is a potential that it could, mass evacuations could be ordered, and we’ll have the US Navy and the Marines lead that effort from the carrier groups off the eastern Mediterranean (via WaPo):
The White House has ordered the Department of Defense to begin preparing Contingency Plans for a “Worst Case Scenario” in the Middle East which could require the Evacuation of Hundreds of Thousands of U.S. Nationals from the Region with Significant Concern for the roughly 600,000… pic.twitter.com/OZaRVfHvhR
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 24, 2023
The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility that hundreds of thousands of American citizens will require evacuation from the Middle East if the bloodshed in Gaza cannot be contained, according to four officials familiar with the U.S. government’s contingency planning.
[…]
The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to detail internal deliberations, said Americans living in Israel and neighboring Lebanon are of particular concern, though they stressed that an evacuation of that magnitude is considered a worst-case scenario and that other outcomes are seen as more likely.
Still, one official said, it “would be irresponsible not to have a plan for everything.”
The administration, despite its forceful public support for Israel, is deeply alarmed by the prospect of escalation, and in recent days it has turned its attention in part to the complicated logistics of abruptly having to relocate a large number of people, according to three people familiar with the discussions. There were about 600,000 U.S. citizens in Israel and another 86,000 believed to be in Lebanon when Hamas attacked, according to State Department estimates.
The concern in Lebanon is chiefly over Hezbollah, a political party and militant group that has controlled the country since 1992. It has long accepted training and weapons from Iran, prompting concerns that it could attack Israel from the north, creating a two-front war that would stretch Israeli forces. Already, there have been skirmishes along their shared border.
“This has become a real issue,” one official said. “The administration is very, very, very worried that this thing is going to get out of hand.”
[…]
Top U.S. officials have not wanted to discuss such contingency planning in public, hoping to avoid setting off a panic among Americans in the region. But their posture has shifted in recent days to convey the anxiety about other actors entering the conflict.
It is something to consider, and let’s hope our citizens in the area never have to be placed in this position, but anything is possible with these wars. Planning for absolute bedlam is the right course—I don’t trust Biden can manage it, though.