Tipsheet

Will We Get a New House Speaker Today?

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  October 11, 2023 9:00 AM

On October 2, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed the motion to vacate against then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). He’d been waiting to do this for quite some time, as the two men dislike each other. McCarthy passed a continuing resolution to keep the government open for another 45 days, barely missing the September 30 deadline, which would’ve triggered a government shutdown. While Democrats were initially irked by the lack of Ukraine aid, McCarthy supposedly made a deal to have a separate vote on that package. As a result, the 45-day CR could sail through Congress without much drama. 

Gaetz saw this soliciting of Democratic Party support as a betrayal and moved to boot McCarthy, which was successful. Eight Republicans joined Democrats to remove McCarthy. The House was hurled into chaos, though Reps. Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Jim Jordan (R-OH) emerged as the frontrunners. Then, Hamas launched a massive terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, which has the makings of escalating into a regional war. Americans were killed in the attacks. As Jerusalem prepares for war, we must have someone who can get 218 quickly and get the House in order. When will that happen? We could have a vote today, but Thursday seems the better bet. 

There was a meeting last night, along with a candidate forum, with the former speaker showing up urging members not to nominate him. McCarthy opted not to run for his former leadership post when he was officially kicked out of the speaker’s office. Punchbowl recapped the agenda for House Republicans on Tuesday, including what happens if the drama continues (via Punchbowl News): 

Here’s the week’s timeline: House Republicans will return tonight and hold a conference meeting. There’ll be a candidate forum for speaker on Tuesday featuring Jordan and Scalise. And as of now, the internal GOP election for speaker will be held Wednesday. Many House Republicans want to ensure no candidate goes to the floor for a roll-call vote unless he has the support of 218 Republicans. 

House Democrats will return Tuesday night for an organizational meeting, and they’ll caucus Wednesday morning. Democrats, of course, will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for speaker. 

As noted above, the earliest a floor vote for speaker can take place is Wednesday. However, we think Thursday or later is more likely for any floor action. 

If neither Jordan nor Scalise — or any Republican — can round up enough support to get 218 votes (really 217) and the House goes into next week without a speaker, then that raises a whole new set of questions. Would the House formally approve Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) as speaker pro tem — the post he only nominally holds now — for 30 or 60 days in order to get moving on critical issues? Would a “caretaker speaker” be tapped? Do Republicans have to figure out their internal rules fights first? Some lawmakers want to reelect Kevin McCarthy. That’s not happening, though. 

If we get a new speaker who’s more conservative, then so be it. Crisis averted, but this was already forming into a category five political disaster—the Israel-Hamas war has added urgency to resolve it at least. Israel’s pending invasion of Gaza will not be a quick operation; the brutality and sophistication of the attacks assure that the IDF will remain in the strip until Hamas is wiped out in the region. 

In the meantime, let’s hope this new speaker election has positive updates within the next 36 hours regarding someone who can officially take the gavel.

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