Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has still not revealed as to if he'll run for reelection or perhaps run for president, though it's been looking increasingly likely that he'll become an Independent. If he does, and if he runs for reelection, that might make his race more competitive, according to a Republican poll commissioned by The Tarrance Group that was shared with POLITICO.
As the piece mentioned, when discussing a hypothetical race between Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) and Manchin:
Justice would lead Manchin, 49-43, with 8 percent undecided and a 4.5 percent margin of error. The poll was commissioned by the Mitch McConnell-aligned groups Senate Leadership Fund.
The polling shows Manchin closer to Justice than in several other recent surveys, some of which show Manchin losing to Justice by double-digits, but also raises questions about whether running as an independent would move the needle much in the Mountain State. Justice also still has to defeat Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) in a primary; polls generally show Justice leading Mooney in the primary and as stronger against Manchin in a general election.
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Manchin is openly entertaining running as an independent, whether it's for Senate or for president, though he has made no final decision. The new polling shows a majority of West Virginians are aware he is contemplating a party switch and that, even if he left the Democratic Party, he’d still be losing registered independent voters in West Virginia to Justice by a margin of 11 points.
Justice is one of the most popular governors in the country, though he is term-limited. Manchin has also ranked as one of the more unpopular senators in the country according to that same Morning Consult poll released earlier this year.
West Virginia is seen as one of the top Senate races to watch for 2024, if not the top race, in a year where the map looks particularly favorable to Republicans, especially in comparison to 2022.
Forecasters currently consider the race to be a "Toss-Up" or slightly favor Republicans, and this is even without Manchin having announced his intentions yet. The vulnerable incumbent won in 2018 against Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, with 49.6 percent of the vote to Morrisey's 46.3 percent. Morrisey is currently running for governor.
"Joe Manchin" was trending over X on Thursday, in part due to the poll, but also for his appearance on "Morning Joe." When asked if President Joe Biden is "the best choice" to be the Democratic nominee in 2024, Manchin appeared to struggle for an answer. While he pointed out that Biden beat former and potentially future President Donald Trump in 2020, he also reminded that he's said Biden "is going too far [to the left]."
When pressed for follow up, there was a lot of pauses and "uh" and "ums" from Manchin before he pointed out that "right now he is going to be the choice of the Democratic Party, and I believe that's what they're rallying behind."
Manchin also indicated "I don't know who else is out there willing to get into the race," but advocated for more open primaries, arguing it "would probably make Joe [Biden] a stronger candidate.
Morning Joe presses @Sen_JoeManchin on if he thinks President Biden is the best Democratic option for 2024.@JoeNBC: "Do you think [Biden]'s the best choice?" @Sen_JoeManchin: "I don't know who else is out there willing to get into the race." pic.twitter.com/22zDWKSbwJ
— Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) October 5, 2023
Despite coming from a heavily pro-Trump state, though, Manchin also claimed shortly before that part of the segment that "democracy as we know it would withstand another Trump administration," in response to host Joe Scarborough asking if he will get run as part of the No Labels ticket, which has a goal to stop Trump from getting elected once more. "I don't know where my role is," Manchin also said in response to the question.
Trump won West Virginia in 2016 with 68.5 percent of the vote and in 2020 with 68.6 percent of the vote.