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Could Montana Congressman's Vote to Oust McCarthy Hurt His Potential Senate Run?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 03, 2023 6:15 PM

This article has been updated to include more posts in reaction to Rep. Matt Rosendale's (R-MT) move to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker, and his comments about praying for a narrow House majority.

Earlier on Tuesday, the House made history by voting to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House as a result of taking up Rep. Matt Gaetz's motion to vacate the chair. This is the first time in over 100 years that such a motion has been a real concern for a speaker. It did not take long for potential fallout to come for Republican House members who voted to remove McCarthy, including Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana's 2nd Congressional District. 

HuffPost's Igor Bobic posted on X not long after the vote that Sen. Steve Daines, a fellow Montanan who also chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). As Bobic worded it in his post, "NRSC Chair Daines takes a whack at GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale" after the congressman voted to oust McCarthy and quoted Daines as saying "I didn’t realize that Matt Rosendale and Nancy Pelosi are in the same prayer group."

Another post from Bobic shared a clip from TheMessenger's Dan Merica providing further context about how Rossendale prayed for a narrow majority. Gaetz also appeared in the clip, with the two of them speaking to Steve Bannon during a zoom briefing that mentionefd support for ousting McCarthy 

"What we we have shown, okay, with a very small handful of people... that we can have tremendous impact in that body," Rosendale told Bannon, sitting side-by-side with Gaetz. He also shared that "when a lot of people, unfortunately, were voting to have a 270, 280 Republican House," he "was praying each evening for a small majority, because I've recognized that small majority was the only way that we were going to advance a conservative agenda and that if it was the right majority, that if we had six or seven very strong individuals, we would drag the conference over to the right, and we were able to do that!"

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Pointing to Gaetz, Rosendale declared that "Matt Gaetz has been there from the very beginning, helping accomplish that. It always goes back to leadership, though," Rosendale reminded, offering "we have to change that leadership." 

Merica's exclusive report on that exchange was published for TheMessenger on Monday afternoon. The "closed briefing" was described as "a virtual briefing for around 50 top conservative donors"

Rosendale did not support McCarthy during the 15 ballots it took to select him as speaker in the early morning hours of January 7. He also did not vote in favor of the coninuing resolution (CR) that passed on Saturday to keep the government open for 45-days and avoid a government shutdown.

Thus, his vote on Tuesday afternoon to oust McCarthy is not surprising. It could, however, have ramifications if he does decide to run for the Senate to challenge Jon Tester, one of the particularly vulnerable Democrats running for reelection in 2024. 

Daines isn't the only one taking a dig at Rosendale. As Merica's report also mentioned:

Top Republican operatives are wary of Rosendale’s Senate candidacy, with many still bitter about his 2018 campaign where he lost to Tester by over three percentage points in what was otherwise a good year for Senate Republicans. 

“It is not conservative to root for Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden in the midterms,” a top Republican aide said about Rosendale’s comments. “Gaetz and Rosendale are all about whatever gets them attention - they are not serious about advancing conservative policies.”

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, a fellow Montanan, has urged Rosendale to stay in the House and build seniority for their home state. Daines has thrown his weight behind Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and CEO of an aerial firefighting company. Sheehy has also received endorsements from Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, and several GOP senators. 

Rosendale has yet to formally declare his candidacy but is widely expected to run for Senate again. In the past weeks, he has ramped up his rhetoric in fundraising emails to supporters, regularly mentioning the Senate race and criticizing both House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. He has also privately told people that he is planning to challenge Sheehy for a shot at Tester.

He has dubbed Sheehy as the candidate of the “D.C. Cartel” and a member of the “Biden/McConnell establishment.” Sheehy fired back, calling Rosendale “an insider that nobody likes.”

Rosendale had run against and lost to Tester in 2018, earning 46.8 percent of the vote to Tester's 50.3 percent. While some forecasters had considered the race to slightly favor Tester, Cook Political Report saw the race as a "Toss-Up." 

From his political account, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), who has not been afraid to get involved in various other Senate races for 2024 by making endorsements, reposted Merica's clip to mock Rosendale's finish in 2018.

For 2024, it is Cook Political Report who considers the race to slightly favor Tester, while other forecasters consider it to be a "Toss-Up" race. Montana, along with Ohio and West Virginia, is seen as one of the top Senate races to watch in a year that could be better for Republicans, or at least better than 2022, when it comes to the seat that vulnerable Democratic incumbents are defending.