Last Friday, as Townhall reported, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and his wife were indicted for engaging in a "corrupt relationship with three New Jersey associates and businessmen" between 2018 and 2022, according to an unsealed court filing. The senator, despite calls for him to do so from a considerable amount of fellow Democrats, has maintained he will not resign. He's even expected to run for reelection.
New Jersey is a blue state. According to the Cook Political Report PVI index for 2022, New Jersey is one of the most Democratic states, with a rating of D+6. Menendez, first elected in 2006, was last reelected in 2018 with 54 percent to Republican Bob Hugin's 42.8 percent. In 2012, he was reelected with 58.9 percent of the vote to Republican Joe Kyrillos' 39.4 percent.
Nevertheless, Cook Political Report changed their forecast of the 2024 New Jersey election from "Solid D" to "Likely D." That's how serious the allegations are.
"In 2018, a nominal primary challenger got almost 38% of the vote, and Menendez was forced into a competitive general election, albeit one he ended up winning by 11 points against a Republican self-funder," is how they framed that last race he won.
"For now, with a sitting senator under a very serious federal indictment, we can no longer keep this race under our current rating."@JessicaTaylor on #NJSen's move from Solid D to Likely D: https://t.co/W7v176CCKQ
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) September 26, 2023
Rep. Andy Kim, a fellow New Jersey Democrat, has announced he'll primary Menendez, and as our friends at Twitchy highlighted, New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy is being floated as another primary challenge. Her husband, Gov. Phil Murphy, is also among those fellow New Jersey Democrats calling on the defiant Menendez to resign, in addition to many of Menendez's fellow Democratic senators.
"The wild card is Tammy Murphy. The New Jersey Globe reported Monday morning that she’s been receiving encouragement; the state has never had a female senator," Cook Political Report noted. "The first lady, a former Goldman Sachs executive and adept political fundraiser, is powerful in her own right — she’s known as one of the governor’s top policy advisors, and one Democratic source told us the joke in Trenton is that the two are known as 'the governor and her husband.'"
So, does the prognosticator think that there's a chance for Republicans? Here's what could be some concerning news for Menendez, when it comes to those calling on him to resign, not just in Congress, but the county parties:
Menendez has remained defiant, reiterating on Monday that he is innocent and intends to remain in office. Notably, though, he didn’t explicitly say that he is running for reelection in 2024. And even with a cavalcade of Democrats coming out against him, there’s little indication he intends to cede to their demands any time soon. Even Democrats in the state we talked to who want Menendez to step aside understand why he is unlikely to, at least right now. He needs to use his $7.8 million campaign war chest for legal bills. And remaining in office gives him a bargaining chip in making a possible deal with federal investigators.
Menendez’s Achilles’ heel may be his eroding support at the county level. New Jersey county parties wield enormous influence over the primary process by giving their preferred candidates top placement on local ballots, called the county line system. According to the New Jersey Globe, 13 of 21 county chairmen have called on Menendez to resign, and one source speculated to us that could rise to at least 20 counties, with Menendez only hanging on in his home base of Hudson County (though even that’s not a certainty). This system has effectively decided many races in the past. As Princeton University’s Sam Wang recently analyzed, candidates listed on that county line get an average advantage of 30 points, and no incumbent on the county line has lost a primary for decades. In this sense, it’s far more useful to see where Menendez’s support is receding locally, not necessarily nationally.
A "Likely D" still favors the Democrat, of course. Here's more from Cook Political Report on where a Republican candidate stands in the race, with added emphasis:
If Menendez somehow wins renomination, it would give Republicans a small chance to make the seat competitive. “The best chance Republicans have is Menendez is defiant, doesn’t leave and somehow figures out a way to win the primary,” one New Jersey GOP strategist told us.
However, even they admitted that was unlikely. The main Republican in the race now is Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, who just announced last week, but she has ties to Trump that would hurt her in a general. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, who was elected to Congress in 2018 as a Democrat but then switched to the GOP in 2020, has also floated his name, but both parties — who each continue to view Van Drew skeptically — don’t think he’ll ultimately run.
The state hasn’t elected a Republican senator in over 50 years, and the fact that this election will be concurrent with a presidential election makes it all the less likely. Instead, Republicans are likely to zero-in on the open governor’s race in 2025, where they have had more success recently. Names to keep an eye on there include 2017 and 2021 candidate Jack Ciattarelli, conservative talk show host Bill Spadea and state Sen. Jon Bramnick, a moderate who even Democrats admit would be a formidable candidate.
If anyone other than Menendez is the nominee, this moves back to a Solid Democrat seat. But for now, with a sitting senator under a very serious federal indictment, we can no longer keep this race under our current rating. As such, we are shifting the New Jersey Senate race to Likely Democrat.
What may also be a consideration for Republican chances, curiously not mentioned, is how close the 2021 gubernatorial election turned out to be. Again, New Jersey is a blue state. Murphy was elected in 2017, winning handily by double digits against Republican Kim Guadango, with 56 percent to her 41.9 percent. It took several days for the race to be called in 2021, though, and Murphy only won with 51.2 percent of the vote against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who still got 48 percent of the vote.
Ciattarelli, is, however mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate again for 2025. Murphy is term-limited.
Cook Political Report put out another piece, too, on how Menendez's problems could affect other New Jersey Democrats. It may take time for us to know what the true effects are, as we're still over eight months from the primary and over 13 months out from the general election, and again, it is New Jersey after all. But it's a curious topic nevertheless to get into hypotheticals.
"Though New Jersey’s 2024 landscape will develop slowly given November’s upcoming legislative elections, it’s quite possible that the Garden State ends up playing host to a multi-seat shuffle," this piece noted. "That’s to say nothing of the fate of 8th District Rep. Rob Menendez, the son of Sen. Menendez, whose career could end up as collateral damage from his father’s imploding reputation. And if that wasn’t enough, another epic showdown is all but guaranteed in the Republican-held 7th District--a top target in Democrats’ hunt for the House majority."
Rep. Menendez is seeking reelection, as POLITICO reported earlier this week, noting it's a safe seat.
It's not just Cook Political Report which is exploring if the political landscape could be affected in a state as blue as New Jersey. POLITICO also published "Bob Menendez’s defiance could be an electoral nightmare for Democrats."
"If Menendez runs again in 2024 and survives the Democratic primary, Republicans would have their best shot in 52 years at winning a Senate seat in the blue state, forcing his party to invest millions into defending what should be a safe seat," the piece notes early on, taking a much more optimistic viewpoint for Republicans.
It could perhaps even affect 2024 in other ways, which is of course a presidential election year. "And as Democrats try to exploit former President Donald Trump’s own legal troubles, including four separate indictments, the case against Menendez risks muddying their messaging — and could drag down the electoral prospects of other Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden," the report continues with.
New Jersey hasn't voted for the Republican presidential candidate since the 1988 election of George H.W. Bush. And Biden beat former and potentially future President Donald Trump handily, 57 to 41 percent. Still, it's fun to explore, especially when, as Cook Political Report points out, Pennsylvania is a swing state.