The stage is set for the second GOP presidential primary debate where seven Republican candidates will battle it out at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in sunny Simi Valley, California, a face-off that again feels like a fight for the runner-up spot.
Like last time, the far-and-away Republican frontrunner won't be in attendance. As Matt previously covered, Donald Trump plans to skip this round of rhetorical bloodshed. Instead, the former president is slated to speak to an assembly of Detroit autoworkers, seeking to win over blue-collar voters in the battleground state of Michigan, as the United Auto Workers (UAW) union strike continues.
Ron DeSantis is seen by some as the only contender who can realistically dethrone the MAGA king for the party's nomination, though the Florida governor is losing much-needed ground in the polls against the ever-dominant Trump.
To close the gap in Wednesday's showdown, DeSantis may have to draw blood, but his choice to not enter the fray in the first debate made him appear above the fray. Among the GOP cast of characters, DeSantis was a serious candidate positioning himself as no-nonsense, a strategy that has worked to his benefit. For many, it's exactly what Americans need during a time of national disarray and decay: Someone who will get the job done, as DeSantis has done in Florida.
DeSantis's seriousness juxtaposes Vivek Ramaswamy's hooting-and-hollering braggadocio. Last month, the carefree GOP newcomer stole the spotlight with a string of bumper-sticker lines that stuck. But, Ramaswamy's first foray into the political scene meant he was easy pickings for his seasoned rivals flocking to feast on the fresh meat. And, it was an all-you-can-eat buffet.
Chris Christie will go after you, your mother, and your mother's mother. His memorable mocking of Ramaswamy for unmistakably plagiarizing Barack Obama (and spewing out ChatGPT scripts) earned him TV points. Christie's mic-drop mockery left the self-described "skinny guy with a funny last name" shell-shocked, but still grinning ear-to-ear, and the amused audience in an uproar.
The polished Nikki Haley had a strong showing in August, when she took Ramaswamy to task over foreign policy, and hopes to keep up the momentum Wednesday night. Haley could pull further ahead, if only she just drops the derivative girl-power schtick.
In the fallout of Jan. 6, Mike Pence's schism with Trump, who hoisted him up to the vice presidency, will hurt him the most. However, he continues to invoke "duty" and "democracy" with a holier-than-thou approach that rolls eyes more than it wins over voters, as shown in preference polls.
Asa Hutchinson didn't qualify for the second debate and will hardly be missed. Doug Burgum made it, and so did Tim Scott who stayed out of the conflict zone last time. Both stayed mostly under the radar and seized little speaking time. Burgum literally broke a leg (well, ruptured an Achilles tendon) on the eve of the Aug. 23 debate during a game of pick-up basketball, but his moment in the limelight was short-lived.
An interesting note: Gavin Newsom is supposed to spawn in, like a Disney villain. (He looks like one, too.) Expect the cameras to capture the Newsom spotting. Joe Biden's re-election campaign is reportedly deploying the Democrat governor there, which also happens to be Newsom's stomping grounds. As Spencer wrote, Newsom and DeSantis are scheduled to debate one another somewhere in Georgia on Nov. 30 in a blue state vs. red state match-up moderated by Fox News host Sean Hannity.
Here's what we forecast will happen tonight. Play BINGO (or a drinking game) with us as the candidates square off:
The stage may shrink by the next debate as strategists predict that qualifying cuts will force some candidates off the stage.
To qualify for the third event, entry requirements stipulate that candidates must draw at least four percent in either two national polls or one national poll and two polls from separate "carve out" states approved by the Republican National Committee: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. On the donation front, 2024 candidates will also need a minimum of 70,000 unique donors with at least 200 unique donors per state or territory in at least 20 states and/or territories.