The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average has shown a particularly close hypothetical race between former and potentially future President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden for 2024, giving us a rematch of the 2020 presidential election. While Biden has tended to lead, albeit very narrowly, Trump on Thursday managed to take the lead in the RCP average, for a spread of +0.4.
It looks like former and potentially future President Donald Trump is now leading President Joe Biden in the RCP poll for 2024! It’s a spread of 0.4+, but the race has been this close in the polls thus far! pic.twitter.com/pkczGxGtaW
— Rebecca Downs (@RebeccaRoseGold) September 14, 2023
The Make America Great Again Inc. PAC released an email celebrating the small lead, also pointing to how Biden is up against Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in a hypothetical match up with a spread of +3.8. DeSantis is in second place behind Trump in the Republican presidential primary.
"Joe Biden went into Election Day 2020 with a 7.2% lead in the RCP polling average. The 2020 election, if you believe the media narrative, was decided by just 44,000 votes. Today, the RCP average has shifted in President Trump’s favor, putting President Trump ahead of Crooked Biden while no other GOP candidate even comes close. President Trump can and will win this election, and that’s why Corrupt Democrats are so intent on illegally interfering and trying to deny the American people their Constitutional Right to choose their own leader," said Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for Make America Great Again Inc., in a statement.
The latest polls included in the RCP average include a Quinnipiac poll where Biden is up by 1 percent among registered voters, with 47 percent support to Trump's 46 percent support if the election were held today. Two percent were undecided. The poll was conducted September 7-11 with a sample size that included 1,726 registered voters for which there was a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Another poll, from The Messenger/Harris X, shows Trump up 1 percent, with 44 percent support compared to Biden's 43 percent support among registered voters. A significant figure, of 13 percent, are undecided.
A write-up for the poll also notes that Trump has a narrow lead of support among Independents, with 38 percent to Biden's 36 percent support. Twenty-five percent of Independents are undecided. Independents have proved crucial in past elections, with Trump winning them in 2016 and Biden doing so in 2020.
That poll was conducted online from September 6-11 with 3,015 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.