Earlier this year, I wouldn't have blamed Joe Biden for feeling secure about his re-election chances. The 2022 midterms were a dud for Republicans, who hoped to turn that cycle into a referendum on his presidency and clinch sizable majorities in the House and Senate to start rolling back liberal policy initiatives. Alas, the GOP dropped the ball, failing to retake the Senate and managing a slim five-seat majority in the House. It was a disaster, though Donald Trump seems to think this was some great political victory.
Trump was unpopular, and the thought of facing him in a 2024 rematch seemed like the optimal choice, hence why Democrats were probably thrilled over the four indictments, as the fallout only galvanized the GOP to get behind the man the left feels they can beat handily—but time proved to be the biggest enemy. It's the most precious resource in politics, and there is the equivalent of a millennium between now and Election Day 2024.
Since then, Joe Biden has become almost as unpopular as Donald Trump. The degradation of his mental and physical abilities has made for public spectacles on the stump, and his economic agenda—"Bidenomics"—hasn't resonated with voters whose paychecks have been cannibalized by the White House's inflationary-inducing measures. In 2012, the Obama re-election machine was churning and burning. The Biden 2024 team is reportedly a skeleton crew. Money isn't an issue. Joe will have a sizeable war chest, but the serial problems with his administration have some pointing to his replacement on the ticket. That might be too good to be true, but not every Democrat likes what they see from the president, specifically those at Sole Strategies, a left-leaning political firm, which has been highly critical of Biden's 2024 platform, namely that it's a retread of 2020 because Joe didn't honor any of his key promises four years ago.
Amani Wells-Onyioha, Operations Director at Sole Strategies, spoke with Townhall about Biden's glaring weaknesses heading into 2024. As we noted, time is the most valuable resource in politics, and they're wasting it by not getting key functions on the ground going, like field canvassing. Ms. Wells-Onyioha highlighted four areas where Joe more or less needs to get it together:
- Biden is running on his 2020 plan, one filled with promises he never delivered.
- Biden's lack of media appearances is hurting him, but also a part of his strategy.
- Biden is letting culture wars fight his campaign for him, and it's not working.
- The DNC is putting little effort into the race, overconfident that Biden will win because "he's not Trump."
Regarding issues with his platform, "Biden, as of late, has been pushing more of the 2020 promises, hoping to get some resolve that he couldn't get sooner in the administration. The student loan forgiveness was a major failed 2020 promise, so seeing him make another attempt may turn out to be fruitful for his campaign," said Wells-Onyioha. "Things like the voting rights bill and codifying protections for Roe still remain unaddressed. Fifteen dollar minimum wage, universal pre-k, and family tax credits are still left unresolved," she added.
The student loan route might be hard since the Supreme Court declared Biden's first attempt to forgive up to $10,000 in college debt unconstitutional. Moreover, the president probably knew this was illegal as he haggled over the figures. We know there were staff wars between those who wanted up to $50,000 forgiven and those who wanted to tread more carefully, citing legal concerns. Of all the things Ms. Wells-Onyioha mentioned, abortion is for sure going to be weaponized this cycle, as it's the issue that's been proven to animate liberal voters. And one where the GOP remains paralyzed in effectively responding.
She also added that avoiding the press as much as possible isn't feasible, nor a good play. Trump has been able to use good and bad press to his advantage. However, she admits that reducing public appearances mitigates his aloof moments, like the Medal of Honor ceremony for Cpt. Larry Taylor this week. Biden left before the closing prayer.
"I don't believe letting Trump dominate the headlines is a good thing. Trump nearly won off the free press he was getting through his misdealings in 2016, and giving him the extra airtime could backfire for Biden," she said. "Also, the public needs to feel more connected to Biden and see him doing things for them. Staying out of the media doesn't help him do that, and it's hurting his chances of re-election."
If they're going to change course on his public schedule, Biden's staff will probably down whole bottles of Advil because Biden's excursion to Maui, which got devastated by wildfires that killed over 100 people, the worst in over a century, was a shambles. The president initially responded to the rising death toll by saying, "No comment," which drew a backlash. Then, while on location, he failed to empathize with the survivors who lost everything by telling a story about how he almost lost his Corvette in a little house fire some 15 years ago.
What about the culture wars? Wells-Onyioha doesn't see Biden winning here, as it's a subject for die-hard base voters, not the general electorate. Biden "needs to focus on the economy, health care, housing, environment; the issues that are impacting every single person every day," added Wells-Onyioha. She hopes Biden does more to steer the conversations away from these issues. But abortion is one of those cultural duels, and the president has made no secret about making it a 2024 warcry to mobilize suburban voters.
One area where Biden and the Democrats could be flanked is their overconfidence about facing Trump again. CNN's Harry Enten has repeatedly declared that this narrative should die. Wells-Onyioha aptly noted that being the "anti" candidate is not enough. Kerry was the anti-Bush; Romney was the anti-Obama. They both lost their races.
NEW CNN POLL:
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 7, 2023
"Donald Trump, 47%, Joe Biden, 46%...There was not a single poll conducted by CNN during the entire 2020 cycle in which Donald Trump got a higher share of the vote than Joe Biden did, so this is a vastly different picture from what we saw four years ago..." pic.twitter.com/9Y6g7vhlb9
The DNC's lack of material regarding Biden's re-elect on their website shows that the party leadership feels they can wipe the floor with Trump and the GOP again. Not so fast.
"The Biden 2024 website has no policy proposals or campaign promises on it. The DNC is so confident that we will hand over our votes due to some false allegiance that they won't even try to win our affection, honestly," Wells-Onyioha said. And she didn't stop there [emphasis mine]:
It’s a slap in the face to the Democratic base that we are expected to just vote because we should, and not even give us the decency of trying to show us how they will attempt to deliver on important issues. The voters are being taken for granted and his lack of attempts to even flesh out a platform for his 2024 race speaks volumes. The overconfidence of the DNC is what led to the results of the 2016 election, and Trump getting elected in the first place. They need to be wary of making the same mistakes. Put voters' concerns at the forefront, and create real, tangible strategies to get promises accomplished. Just because Trump is wading in legal trouble, doesn’t mean he isn’t a threat.
Biden is eminently beatable. It's not just die-hard Trump supporters who see it. There are progressive Democrats who agree. Ms. Wells-Onyioha highlighted the deficiencies, some of which I agree with. The culture war isn't going away, however. We're in the thick of it, and while I also know some Republicans who also want to end these debates, if Biden goes gung-ho on abortion, it will leech into other fronts—not centering on gender-neutral bathrooms but more along the lines of biological men participating in women's sports. Also, Biden can't talk about the economy with gusto until inflation gets under control and voters see some relief in their financial futures. Thus far, Bidenomics hasn't resonated.
And let's not forget that the Biden bribery scandal might receive more national attention now that the Trump indictment circus is over. Sure, it's fair to say that this is still an inside-the-beltway story since the Big Three—CBS, NBC, and ABC—haven't reported on it heavily, but that could change. We have a lot of time, and there's been credible corroborating evidence and whistleblower testimony pointing to an alleged illicit influence-peddling scheme by Hunter Biden. An operation that was protected, thanks to sustained Department of Justice interference. Joe seems to be aware of these activities. Hunter was making $20 million from Central Asian oligarchs. Everyone knew the president's son had pull in DC, and new emails show chummy relations with then-top Obama officials, which explains why the Ukrainian energy company Burisma gave him that board seat. On some of these access deals, the proceeds were funneled through a network of shell companies owned by Biden family members.
Trump may face trials next year, but Biden might be slapped with articles of impeachment. No matter where you fall on the political divide, a Trump-Biden rematch will be the nastiest race since John Quincy Adams duked it out with Andrew Jackson in 1828. Or, if you will, Bush-McCain during the 2000 primaries.