Tipsheet
Premium

There's Another Poll Out on Trump Support Following Recent Indictment

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  August 21, 2023 8:00 PM

Last Monday, former and potentially future President Donald Trump was hit with yet another indictment, the fourth against him. This time it's out of Fulton County, Georgia, having to do with the 2020 election, brought by DA Fani Willis. Trump can't get a presidential pardon for these state charges. Given that he is the currently the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination, and a hypothetical matchup between Trump and President Joe Biden shows a close race, the series of indictments do bring with them a sense of election interference. In case there's any worry Trump is losing his frontrunner status, new polls speak to his support overall and specifically in Iowa, the first in the nation nominating caucus to take place in January.

Earlier this month, CBS News released a poll regarding Americans' views on the charges against Trump, as we covered at the time. That poll, from early August, looked to the charges brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith for Trump's role in the events on and leading up to January 6. That poll had a theme of concerns about "undermining democracy" and "defending democracy," but it's also worth mentioning that looking to punish Trump in such a way before the primary and general elections could be "undermining democracy" when it comes to weaponizing justice against one's political opponent. 

Further, that poll had revealed that respondents were equally split on whether they were more concerned with how "Trump tried to overturn a presidential election" or that the charges against him "are politically motivated." Respondents were evenly split, with 38 percent each saying those options concerned them more. Twenty-four percent said "both."

This more recent CBS News poll was released on Sunday, with a key takeaway being that the indictment is not hurting Trump's numbers with Republican primary voters. 

The indictments weren't expected to hurt Trump, at least not in the primary. Democrats and the weaponized Department of Justice (DOJ) under Biden may actually have done Trump a favor in that regard, as a "rally around the flag" effect. Such a point was raised when the first unprecedented indictment was unsealed against the former president several months ago, as discussed in an analysis by FiveThirtyEight in early April. 

Recommended

Nancy Mace Goes Scorched Earth on Snotty Reporter Over Push to Protect Women's Bathrooms in the Capitol Matt Vespa
So, a 'Hacker' Obtained a Copy of the Matt Gaetz Ethics Report Matt Vespa

Trump is regarded as the easiest opponent for Biden, who has made it clear he's looking for a rematch of 2020, given he's already beat Trump. However, RealClearPolitics (RCP) shows it to be a particularly close race. Biden currently only leads with a spread of +0.4, 44.4 percent to Trump's 44 percent. At one point last week, it was Trump who was actually leading, by similar numbers. 

It's also worth noting that the poll shows Trump to be the only candidate who a majority of likely Republican primary voters say "would definitely beat Biden," with 61 percent saying so. Thirty percent say he "might beat Biden," and just 9 percent say Trump would be a "long shot to beat Biden." Trump is the only candidate where a single digit amount of these likely Republican primary voters say it would be a "long shot." When such voters are asked why they might consider other candidates, just 14 percent say it's because "Trump could lose to Biden."

The next likely candidate to beat Biden is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who 35 percent say "would definitely beat Biden," although a plurality of these likely Republican primary voters, at 47 percent, say he "might beat Biden."

Eighty-one percent of likely Republican primary voters say it's "very important" that the Republican Party nominate someone who "has the best chance of beating Joe Biden." The only other response that enjoys a higher percentage of these voters saying a factor is "very important" is the 85 percent who say as much about nominating someone who "is honest and trustworthy."

It also gets interesting when examining if those likely Republican primary voters are willing to consider candidates other than Trump in light of the indictments. Just 30 percent say they're "concerned about Trump's legal fights," while 70 percent are not. 

If anything, the indictment has helped Trump in the Republican primary. This is true with the CBS News poll, where he enjoys 62 percent support, as well as with the RCP average, where he's at a 55.8 percent, for a spread of +40.9. 

Trump was also at 55.8 percent on June 10, at 56 percent support on May 18, at 56.3 percent from May 19-May 22, and at 56.2 percent on May 23. He hasn't gone below 51 percent support since early April. 

CBS News acknowledges as much. "In fact, most of [Trump's] voters cite those troubles as yet one more reason to show him support," the poll's write-up mentions. 

When it comes to concerns about political weaponization, Kabir Khanna, who does elections and data for CBS News and is credited for working on the write-up, tweeted out sentiments from likely Republican GOP voters on that issue. Seventy-seven percent of those polled say they're more concerned that "the charges and indictment against Donald Trump are politically motivated," while just 8 percent say they're more concerned that "Donald Trump tried to overturn a presidential election." Fifteen percent say they're concerned about both. 

That certainly does speak to Trump's hold on the Republican Party, or, at the very least, that the party almost universally acknowledges that the charges are politicized. 

It's also worth reminding that, as the poll's release earlier this month showed, among overall respondents, there's a statistical tie when it comes to what they're more concerned with. Thirty-eight percent say they're more concerned with "politically motivated" charges, while 37 percent say they're more concerned with Trump trying "to overturn a presidential election." Twenty-five percent are concerned about both.

It's also worth mentioning that 65 percent of those who are considering or might consider Trump say they will do so to "show support during his legal fights."

One finding looks to examine why it is that indictments haven't hurt Trump. A tweet from the CBS News Poll account says it's "in part" to do with Trump voters believing he's the one telling them the truth. 

"More generally, Trump's voters hold him as a source of true information, even more so than other sources, including conservative media figures, religious leaders, and even their own friends and family," the poll's write-up noted. 

That's hardly surprising, and again, it speaks to the support that Trump has from Republican primary voters. 

The actual question is deeper the graphic portrays it to be. Here's the question they were read:

These days, information is everywhere. We’re interested in how you describe where you feel you get information that is true. For each of these general sources, do you feel what they tell you generally is either:True, they are being accurate; Mistaken, but they are trying to be accurate; Lies, they are intentionally saying false things to mislead

When it comes to just the true category, 58 percent say their "friends and family" tell them what is true, while 53 percent say as much about Donald Trump. 

Who performs the lowest in those categories? Sources that look to raise a panic about Trump, as in the case of "liberal media figures," with just 8 percent of these likely Republican primary believing what they say is true. Another source, who has weaponized his DOJ against his likely political rival in 2024, is Joe Biden, with just 10 percent saying they believe what he says to be true. Seventy-nine percent say they believe what Biden says is lies, the highest percentage for any of the nine in that category.

Host Margaret Brennan and Elections and Surveys Director Anthony Salvanto discussed this angle on Sunday's edition of "Face the Nation," also on CBS News. 

When it comes to those voters mentioned above who would back Trump to support him in his legal battles, Salvanto said that "girds that support from his--his substantial base." As he continued to explain that support for Trump, Salvanto spoke in part to how those voters "reject the premise of these indictments because...they say they're politically motivated, and that swamps any other concerns."

Another aspect is that "Republicans, to a larger degree, see the U.S. political system...as corrupt."

The CBS News poll included 2,061 Americans overall who were interviewed between August 16-18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Included in the survey were 538 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.

Trump himself has paid considerable attention to the CBS News poll. In a TruthSocial post from Sunday, he actually cited his 62 percent support as a reason for not participating in the RNC primary debates. After months of teasing, it was revealed last Friday that Trump would grant an interview to Tucker Carlson rather than participate in Wednesday's first RNC debate, hosted by Fox News. Trump's Sunday TruthSocial post references "THE DEBATES," plural. 

In addition to citing the poll, and listing off his primary opponents' poll numbers, Trump's post notes that "[t]he public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had, with Energy Independence, Strong Borders & Military, Biggest EVER Tax & Regulation Cuts, No Inflation, Strongest Economy in History, & much more. I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!"


When it comes to Trump's support in Iowa, a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll has him with 42 percent support among likely Republican Iowa caucusgoers, compared to DeSantis' 19 percent. The poll also shows that 66 percent of those respondents who have Trump as their first choice say their mind has been made up. 

On the indictments, the poll shows that 65 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers believe that Trump "has not committed any serious crimes."

That poll was conducted August 13-17, with the fourth indictment coming on the 14th. It surveyed 406 likely Republican caucusgoers and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. 

With that Des Moines Register poll mentioned above included, RCP currently has Trump with 43.2 percent support in Iowa for a spread of +26.0.