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What Should We Make of This Monmouth Poll on Trump-Biden Rematch?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  July 21, 2023 5:45 PM

Although the Republican Iowa Caucus is still close to six months away, former and potentially future President Donald Trump is already expected to be the Republican nominee, especially given his current wide lead in the polls against his Republican challengers. We're now seeing more and more polls surveying views about the general election as a rematch of 2020 between Trump and President Joe Biden, including one poll from Monmouth University released on Thursday. The Monmouth poll is of interest as it includes a generic third-party ticket and a named one with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) at the top and former Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT) as his running mate. 

The poll examined the potential support that Trump and Biden have among registered voters and showed that a full 50 percent said they would "definitely not" vote for Trump. Those numbers were at 46 percent for Biden. He currently sits at a 44 percent approval rating, while 52 percent disapprove, showing a slight improvement in recent months. 

Biden also enjoys more combined support among those who say they'd "definitely" (36 percent) or "probably" (11 percent) vote for him, compared to those who say they'd "definitely" (26 percent) or "probably" (14 percent) vote for Trump. 

The poll also looks at the favorability ratings of the two candidates. Just 36 percent have a favorable view of Trump, while a whopping 63 percent have an unfavorable view. That includes 50 percent who say they view Trump "very unfavorably." Biden, in comparison, has a 43 percent favorable rating, while 57 percent view him unfavorably. 

That -27 percent net-negative for Trump is the lowest in the poll's history, the InteractivePolls Twitter account pointed out. 

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The poll was conducted July 12-17, with 910 adults, though it included 840 registered voters for this particular release, among which there was a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. 

Possibly even raising more concerns is that Biden still has an edge on Trump despite his low ratings on the economy. Monmouth also released findings for Biden's handling of the economy, noting that "Biden Gets Little Economic Credit." For all of the administration's attempts to gaslight the American people into supporting Bidenomics, they just aren't buying it. 

Overall, voters are statistically tied regarding his handling of jobs and unemployment – 47 percent approve while 48 percent disapprove. The president is constantly misleading about wages and job growth, no matter how often he gets fact-checked. 

Another agenda item that the administration has incessantly touted has been infrastructure. But, the polls show that just 43 percent approve of Biden's handling of transportation and energy infrastructure, while 51 percent disapprove. 

As has been the case for some time now, voters give Biden low marks on inflation – just 34 percent approve of his handling of the issue, while a whopping 62 percent disapprove. 

The numbers are even worse among independents. Forty-one percent of such voters support Biden on jobs and unemployment, while 37 percent do on transportation and energy infrastructure, and a pitiful 26 percent support him on inflation. 

"The president has been touting 'Bidenomics,' but the needle of public opinion has not really moved. Americans are just not giving him a lot of credit when it comes to the economy," Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, stated. 

The poll also shows that narratives regarding how the U.S. economy has supposedly recovered better than other countries following the COVID pandemic aren't landing with the American people. As the write-up mentions: 

Some indicators suggest the U.S. economy has been recovering better than other countries from the worldwide instability and rising prices brought on by the Covid pandemic. However, just 30% of the American public believes that. In fact, 32% say the U.S. economy’s recovery from this situation is worse than other countries and another 33% say the U.S. recovery is about the same as the rest of the world.

As mentioned, the poll also looks to see how voters feel about a third-party ticket. They're not particularly enthused. In fact, they're even less supportive of that Manchin-Huntsman-named ticket than they are of a generic ticket. 

"We are still very much in the realm of hypotheticals, where voters' assessment of their actual behavior can be unreliable. However, the more concrete you make an alternative to the major party candidates, the less attractive it becomes. A third-party nominee needs to capture voters' imagination to be successful. It is not clear that such a charismatic figure exists right now," Murray is quoted as saying. 

Manchin won't say whether or not he's going to run, just as he won't even say if he's going to run for reelection, which would be the only prayer Democrats have of hanging onto that seat. Manchin said during one of his frequent Sunday show appearances a few months back he'll indicate what he's doing "at the end of the year." 

We've covered how Manchin's fellow Democrats are terrified about a third-party run, trying to talk him out of it, with Matt highlighting some examples earlier this week, around the time the West Virginia senator headlined a No Labels event in New Hampshire along with Huntsman, something that raised even more chatter. 

MSNBC also published an op-ed from Zeeshan Aleem claiming, "No Labels seems to have no idea what it's doing." On Friday, Salon published Heather Digby Parton's "The opposite of 'common sense': No Labels campaign in 2024 is a revenge plot against Democrats." Despite such a hysterical headline, Parton does mention the Monmouth poll. "So who knows who this gambit would hurt more in a general election? I think it's common sense not to take a chance, however, given the awful experience of 2017 to 2021," she still writes. 

Despite such incessant worrying from Democrats, as Parton acknowledges in her op-ed, the Monmouth poll shows that the third-party ticket actually hurts Trump. As the poll's write-up highlighted: 

...When a generic bipartisan ticket is offered as an alternative, Biden’s support drops from 47% to 37% and Trump’s support falls from 40% to 28%. With a Manchin/Huntsman ticket as the alternative, Biden’s support drops from 47% to 40% and Trump’s support falls from 40% to 34%. Interestingly, among the 13% of voters who say they will vote for neither Trump nor Biden, most say they will vote for a generic third-party ticket (9% move from neither to the third party), but that support largely disappears when the ticket is specifically named as Manchin and Huntsman (only 4% move from neither to the third party).

The poll also asked hypothetical questions about what voters would do if they thought a third-party ticket could be a spoiler. In the case where voting for a third party could lead to the election of Biden, 39% say they would vote for Biden, 37% would vote for Trump, and 20% would vote for the third-party ticket. In the case where voting for a third party could lead to the election of Trump, 43% would vote for Biden, 33% would vote for Trump, and 20% would vote for the third-party ticket.

“The expectation that a third-party run could tip the scales toward Biden might produce a tighter contest than when the spoiler effect is seen to help Trump. Again, these are hypotheticals. It’s impossible to predict the impact of a third-party challenge until an actual campaign is underway, when the media’s framing of it will play an important role,” said Murray.

For what it's worth, Monmouth currently enjoys an "A" rating from FiveThirtyEight – though the site has not included this particular poll for the latest general election polls, at least not yet. RCP has yet to include the poll, though, at this time, it shows Biden with a lead of +0.4 against Trump in the general election. Included are polls from Quinnipiac, Yahoo! News, and Morning Consult, which show Biden up by +5, +4, and +2, respectively. 

We've highlighted the polls that showed Trump had an edge against Biden. As was pointed out then, and as it's worth continuing to point out, there's still time for the polls to change. The Trump campaign has better hope that they do, especially when it's becoming increasingly likely that he will remain the frontrunner and become the nominee.