We are now a little over two months away from the first RNC presidential primary debate on August 23 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Almost from the time the criteria to qualify was announced last month, there's been chatter about who is in, who is out, and who wants to bother. Candidates have to be able to fulfill donor and polling criteria, and will then be asked to sign a pledge indicating they'll support the eventual nominee. While the move makes sense to avoid a crowded debate stage of more than 12 candidates, including potentially not serious contenders, there are still those who are bristling.
As we covered last week, former and potentially future President Donald Trump has indicated he might not show up to the debate. As the current front-runner leading in the primary by almost 31 points, Trump likely doesn't need to. In January 2016, Trump skipped a primary debate to hold a separate event for veterans. He said not long after that he doesn't regret it, and why would he? He went on to win the nomination and the presidency.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a fellow contender, believes that Trump ultimately will end up on the debate stage, but only Trump himself will likely make that decision.
Trump and others have concerns about the pledge, but there are actually candidates complaining about the polling threshold. As Leah mentioned at the time, that part of the criteria is as follows:
- Poll at least 1% in three national polls OR 1% in two national polls and 1% in one early state poll from two separate “carve out” states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) recognized by the RNC. For a poll to be recognized, it must:
- Survey at least 800 registered likely Republican voters through a mix of live calls, integrated voice response, online panels, and/or text message.
- Not overly weight responses of any individual cohort beyond the margin of the error of the poll.
- Ask the question on presidential preference prior to any question which may allow potential bias.
- Not be a conducted by a polling company affiliated with a candidate or candidate committee.
- Meet this polling requirement no later than 48 hours prior to the first scheduled debate and must be conducted on or after July 1, 2023.
For candidates to have at least 1 percent in the polls to qualify ought to be considered a given. There's even an "or" here to give the candidates some leeway. But that's still too much to ask for candidates like former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas.
On Tuesday morning, The Hill published a piece highlighting concerns from Hutchinson, among others. Last month, the former governor talked to "Meet the Press Now" about being on the debate stage. "I intend to be at that debate," he said. "People are telling me it's important, they want to hear my message, and I think it's going to be a great contrast."
Hutchinson also called for the early debates to be more "inclusive" and argued "we should not be exclusive in the first couple of debates particularly," indicating, "I disagree with the strategy as to how you're going to disqualify some for being on that stage."
He had also claimed last month to Fox News that "some candidates won't be able to make that criteria," though he believed he would be, saying that "we are already generating" support in 20 different states. That point seems to be about the RNC criteria that candidates must "[h]ave a minimum of 40,000 unique donors to candidate's principal presidential campaign committee (or exploratory committee), with at least 200 unique donors per state or territory in 20+ states and/or territories."
Declared GOP Presidential Candidate Asa Hutchinson:
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) June 5, 2023
"I would prefer...in the early debates, for it to be wide open...some candidates won't be able to make that criteria!" pic.twitter.com/mCIlpEe3aj
Last month, POLITICO ranked where candidates stood on making the debate stage, considering Hutchinson to be "on the bubble," as it included a statement from the candidate. In it, Hutchinson complained that the criteria "will keep some candidates from being on the debate stage and benefits candidates who generate online donations through extreme rhetoric and scare tactics."
Hutchinson is currently polling at 0.8 percent, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP).
For the 2016 presidential primary, the RNC held separate debates for those who did not qualify for the main event. At no point did Trump not qualify for the main event, though.
Speaking of Trump, Hutchinson has done himself no favors by lashing out against the frontrunner (as he's done), especially in light of the various indictments against the former and potentially future president. Hutchinson, who appears to be something of a darling to the anti-Trump media given all of his Sunday show appearances, has even called on Trump to drop out. It's worth noting, though, that the indictments have helped Trump in the polls, and polls also show a plurality or even a majority of respondents believe the charges against Trump are politicized.
Back in January, Hutchinson was included in another VIP piece of mine which featured long-shot candidates, questioning why they were even running. Not only is the former governor struggling in the polls, but in his previous role, he was lambasted for RINO policies, like vetoing legislation that would protect minors from undergoing irreversible sex change procedures:
While Hutchinson is from a particularly red state, again, he still has to get through a primary. He too has been seen as something as a RINO, especially due to his veto of legislation that would protect minors from undergoing gender transition procedures, which put him at odds with Trump. The legislation, known as the SAFE Act, went into law regardless, after the state legislature overrode Hutchinson's veto. The potential primary opponent has not been afraid to go against Trump in other instances as well, just as he did in an interview last month with the Associated Press, in which he called Trump's run the "worst scenario" for the party.
Hutchinson isn't the only one taking issue with the criteria. The Hill quotes radio show host Larry Elder, who unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) in his 2021 recall election, calling the criteria "onerous" and lamenting it could hurt campaigns like his if he can't make the debate stage.
"For me, it's very critical. For someone like Donald Trump, who has a track record and 100 percent name recognition, not so much," Elder told The Hill. "I can't introduce myself to America unless I make the debate stage."
Former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas has also criticized Trump at length. He's something of a RINO himself, with just one reason being that during Sunday's episode of CNN's "State of the Union," he indicated to host Dana Bash a desire to move away from the culture wars.
"A lot of your Republican opponents are making LGBTQ rights a cultural flash point...What's your message to them?" she asked. Hurd's response in part was, "I wish they would focus and focus their attacks on war criminals like Vladimir Putin, not my friends in the LGBTQ community," as "it is 2023."
Hurd is mentioned in the article not just for his refusal to sign the pledge but for how not being on the debate stage doesn't seem to bother him. "Is it a nontraditional campaign? Absolutely. But the way we're going to run this tent and get more people who are sick and tired of the way things are is we got to do things a little bit differently," he said.
That Hill article is also full of quotes from Republican figures stating the obvious, which is that candidates need to be able to meet such criteria if they expect to go up against President Joe Biden and beat the incumbent president:
“The debates are arguably the only thing that matters. It’s the only time voters really tune in. It’s when you can see some big shifts happen quickly in the race,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign.
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RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has defended the threshold requirements, telling conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in an interview in June, “We’re not doing it in a punitive way. We’re doing it in a success metric.”
“And if you can’t do this to get on the debate stage, you’re probably not going to be able to take on the incumbent president of the United States,” McDaniel continued.
While members of the party say that both the polling and donor requirements pose challenges for some of the candidates, some also have a message for those complaining about them: Compete or get out of the race.
“Their focus should be on meeting that threshold. And if they can’t, then that suggests that their campaign isn’t serious enough to warrant attention,” explained Doug Heye, a former spokesman for the RNC.
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“If you can’t make this debate stage, it’s an absolute killer for your candidacy,” GOP strategist Gregg Keller said.
“If you cannot make this debate stage, you are not going to factor into the early primaries and caucuses and therefore neither will you factor into the later primaries and caucuses,” he noted.
As it is, hypotheticals between Biden and Trump show that Trump could win but still appear to be close, as is the case with a hypothetical match-up between Biden and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who is currently in a distant second behind Trump.