The media is raving about the extraordinary events in Russia over the weekend. There was nothing special about it. The coup attempt fizzled within 48 hours, none of the objectives of the Kremlin-supported mercenary Wagner group were achieved, and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will be allowed to live in exile in Belarus without fear of prosecution for fostering a rebellion. Prigozhin railed against the military leadership, calling it evil, corrupt, and accused them of attacking his forces.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, two individuals Prigozhin hated, remain in their posts. I’m not sure Prigozhin even felt this could be pulled off despite most of Russia’s military being deployed in Ukraine. He allegedly has 25,000 men under his command, which isn’t enough to take over the capital. The force that got within 200 kilometers of the city was smaller in number, which probably explains the stand-down and withdrawal order on Saturday. Now, we’re learning that one of the reasons for the tantrum was that Prigozhin didn’t want Wagner absorbed into the Russian military (via WaPo):
Wagner group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who sent a convoy of mercenary fighters toward Moscow over the weekend in an extraordinary challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority, posted an 11-minute audio statement on Monday claiming he launched the rebellion after… pic.twitter.com/NJMGzgv8ec
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) June 26, 2023
Prigozhin said in his video message that the rebellion, which he refers to as a “march of justice,” came after orders that would have resulted in the absorption of Wagner mercenary forces in Ukraine into the conventional military, beginning July
He claimed that most Wagner members had refused to sign contacts with Russia’s minister of defense, accusing military commanders of incompetence, and reiterated accusations that his fighters came under attack from Russian forces.
The success of Wagner’s rapid advance toward Moscow suggests that the group should have been responsible for the drive to take Kyiv in the early days of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Prigozhin said. If that attack “was carried out by a unit of a similar level of training and moral composure such as Wagner then perhaps the ‘special operation’ would have lasted a day.”
Prigozhin did not reveal his location. He did not discuss his reported acceptance of exile in Belarus.
Russia’s Defense Ministry published a video Monday claiming to show Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting a command post in Ukraine. It was not immediately clear when or where the footage was recorded. Prigozhin has long accused Shoigu of fumbling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called for his ouster. Shoigu, one of the targets of Wagner’s rebellion, was nowhere to be seen over the weekend.
Prigozhin was protecting what’s his—that’s fair. The ‘Russian military leaders are evil, and my rebellion is just’ war cry he delivered over the weekend was too good to be true, not least since he’s also a bad guy. Who knows if Putin’s grip is loosening? I don’t trust anything from Russia or Ukraine.
Also, would you be shocked if this were true?
BREAKING: Prigozhin’s ‘coup’ may be staged, according to former CIA analyst .
— Patrick Webb (@pwleaks) June 26, 2023