At long last, the 2022 midterms battle for the US House of Representatives is officially in the books. Well, mostly officially, as the fight for Colorado's Third Congressional District still hasn't quite been called, despite Rep. Lauren Boebert's Democratic challenger having conceded the extremely close race. Because of California's embarrassing vote-counting system, it took until December for another close and disputed House race in the Golden State to be resolved. The contest in CA-13 languished for weeks, with the Republican candidate narrowly ahead, as the excruciating process kept grinding away. Over the weekend, at long last, it was finally declared over.
The election happened on November 8. This count wasn't over until December 2, which is ludicrous:
BREAKING: Republican John Duarte wins election to U.S. House in California's 13th Congressional District. #APracecall at 7:06 p.m. PST. https://t.co/2nlgpji7ac
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) December 3, 2022
The Democrat threw in the towel:
Adam Gray concedes in #CA13https://t.co/kPaY5MMO3I
— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) December 3, 2022
This is a GOP gain in a Democratic area. "The 13th District has a prominent Democratic tilt and a large Latino population, similar to other districts in the sprawling farm belt region," according to the Associated Press. "That provided an opening for the GOP, despite the 14-point Democratic registration advantage." Duarte's win gives House Republicans a 222-213 edge heading into the new Congress, the exact same majority margin Democrats had after 2020. In that cycle, House Republicans over-performed expectations, gaining double-digit seats, losing zero incumbents, and sweeping the toss-ups. In 2022, they under-performed expectations and were held to just nine net seat gains, the bulk of which were won in Florida and New York.
The Real Clear Politics pre-election 2022 generic ballot polling average showed the Republicans ahead by 2.5 points. That turned out to be pretty accurate. Republicans won the combined national House 'popular vote' by 2.9 percentage points, winning better than three million more total House votes than Democrats, 54.37 million to 51.27 million. Of course, the book is not yet closed on the 2022 Senate elections, as the Georgia runoff is happening tomorrow. Polling and other indicators suggest that Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is favored to narrowly win re-election, although the race is close:
NEW Sunday Sneak @axios: "Polls and conversations with top strategists in both parties suggest Tuesday's Georgia runoff will be close — but that Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) holds a small but resilient advantage over Herschel Walker."https://t.co/xjUXeHIJsw
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) December 4, 2022
Herschel Walker still has a shot to win it, but he's not the favorite. This cycle, not a single incumbent Senator has lost, from either party. Only one seat has changed partisan hands (Pennsylvania, red to blue). And only one incumbent governor has been defeated (Nevada, blue to red). I'll leave you with this, as Georgia Democrats relentlessly tie Walker to Trump:
and... "Trump's unfavorable rating has surged to 67% among registered voters, with one-third of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters now viewing him negatively, according to a Marquette Law School national poll."https://t.co/MOlo9g0IJy
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) December 4, 2022