Tipsheet

Poll Showing Oz in the Lead After the Debate With Fetterman Wasn't a One-Off

Spencer Brown
Spencer Brown  |  October 31, 2022 11:30 AM

Four polls conducted since the day of the one and only U.S. Senate debate in Pennsylvania have showed Dr. Mehmet Oz leading John Fetterman by two or three points, still within the margin of error, but suggesting Republicans are coming home to their party's nominee while undecided voters are breaking for Oz over Fetterman. 

The series of polls all showing Oz in the lead came as voters saw Fetterman's disastrous debate performance and failure to accept responsibility for his past policy positions on issues such as fracking along with his refusal to apologize for holding an unarmed, innocent black jogger at gunpoint while Fetterman was the mayor of Braddock. The Oz campaign has been trolling Fetterman with video of the debate in recent days, having a billboard truck replay the debate on a loop outside of Fetterman's events.

As Townhall reported earlier, an Insider Advantage poll from October 26 had Oz with 47.5 percent roughly three points above Fetterman's 44.8 percent among 750 likely voters in the survey with a +/- 3.58 margin of error. 

A Wick Insights poll conducted October 26 and 27 also showed a rounded three-point lead for Oz among more than 1,000 voters surveyed with a +/- 3 margin of error. 

Then there was a Big Data poll of just over 1,000 likely voters October 27-28 that showed Oz with a two point lead in the poll that had a margin of error +/- 3 points. 

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Not for nothing, Big Data's polls proved to be some of the most accurate in the 2016 and 2020 presidential election outcomes in the Keystone State. 

There was also a Coefficient poll in the field from October 26 to 28 that surveyed more than 1,700 likely voters and found Oz with 47.7 percent — up a rounded three points over Fetterman's 45.4 percent. 

With this collection of polls continuing to reinforce Oz's edge in the Keystone State, Democrat warnings of a "bloodbath" next Tuesday are seeming less like panicked hyperbole and more like justified fears.

What's more, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's editorial finally weighed in on the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, writing "[w]e believe Mr. Oz is the better bet for Pennsylvania" and explaining why, "[i]n a race on which much depends and little is certain, Mehmet Oz has shown he is better equipped to lead and deliver for Pennsylvania."

For a deeper look at polling as the midterms enter the final week, check out Guy's piece here that includes an interview with Trafalgar's Robert Cahaly and more of what the tea leaf readers are seeing in the final days for the races that will determine control of Congress.