Earlier this month, we covered how Cook Political Report changed their rating of the Oregon gubernatorial race from "Lean Democratic" to "Toss-Up." That a former Democrat who is running as an Independent, Betsy Johnson, has entered the race, could act as a spoiler. Polling results back up that the Republican nominee, Christine Drazan, is the one who benefits.
NEW: DHM Research
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 28, 2022
Oregon Governor
(R) Drazan 32% (+1)
(D) Kotek 31%
(I) Johnson 18%
Sept 23-24 | 600 LV https://t.co/bqiF2Ujndr pic.twitter.com/LDTq1o3zTi
The Oregonian/OregonLive commissioned a poll from DHM Research showing that Drazan has 32 percent support, while Democrat Tina Kotek has 31 percent. Johnson comes in at a more distant third, with 18 percent. This is despite how Johnson has outraised her opponents.
The poll was conducted September 23-24, with 600 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, which means that Drazan's lead is within that margin. It's nevertheless significant, considering that Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1987.
Reporting from Jamie Goldberg at OregonLive cites John Horvick, the senior vice president of DHM Research. "This is a tossup race," he said. "Christine Drazan has a real opportunity to be the first Republican governor in nearly 40 years."
Horvick is also quoted as mentioning that Johnson has "got lots of money to spend in the next five weeks and money matters," he acknowledged. "But it looks to me at this point that the path for Betsy Johnson is narrowing very quickly."
Goldberg's reporting mentions further down just how feasible this path actually is for Drazan:
Among the three candidates, voters viewed Drazan the most positively with 18% indicating that they had a very positive opinion of her and another 18% saying they had a somewhat positive opinion of her. In comparison, 13% had a very positive opinion and 18% had a somewhat positive opinion of Kotek, while only 9% had a very positive opinion of Johnson and 26% had a somewhat positive opinion of her. About 27% said they didn’t have any opinion of Drazan, while a fourth said they had no opinion of Johnson and a fifth said they had no opinion of Kotek – an indication that the three candidates still have time to make their case to a significant number of voters.
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Despite Democrats significantly outnumbering Republicans in voter registration in Oregon, Drazan has been able to gain traction in the race for governor amid significant dissatisfaction in the direction the Democratically controlled state is headed.
About 62% of voters said that Oregon is on the wrong track, while 25% indicated that the state is heading in the right direction and 13% said they were unsure, the poll found. In addition, 47% of likely voters said they had a very negative opinion of Kate Brown, Oregon’s current Democratic governor. Only 10% said they had a very positive view of her and 21% said they had a somewhat positive opinion of her.
“The political environment is really challenging for Democrats,” Horvick said. “People are feeling bad about the direction of the state. The national political environment is difficult for Democrats.”
As referenced above, Kate Brown, who is the state's current Democratic governor, is extremely unpopular. That's putting it politely, given that data from Morning Consult published in July shows she is the most unpopular governor in the country, with 55 percent disapproving. She was elected in 2018 with just over 50 percent of the vote.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) saw the writing on the wall several months ago. Polling conducted by Cygnal also showed Democrats underwater, with Republicans leading on the state legislative generic ballot. In July the RSLC decided to include Oregon as one of their "Opportunities to Flip Chambers."
In a statement for Townhall earlier this month, RSLC Spokesman Zach Kraft pointed out how "Oregonians are frustrated with the failures of Democrat-controlled Salem and are yearning for change," adding that "Democrats' radical policies have created a major crime wave, skyrocketed the cost of living, and allowed homelessness and drug abuse to takeover parks and community areas. Republicans have the energy and momentum on their side as they work to end a decade of disastrous Democrat control and take Oregon in a positive new direction."
Given how bright blue Oregon is, it's still possible that Kotek could win this race, especially if she is able to bring Democrats together.
As Horvick points out:
Still, Horvick said that Kotek may have an opportunity to pick up key votes in the coming weeks if she can rally the Democratic base.
Only 60% of Democrats polled said they would vote for Kotek if the election were today, while 71% of Republicans polled said they’d vote for Drazan. About 19% of Democrats polled and 13% of Republicans polled said they would vote for Johnson.
“Kotek has yet to solidify her base,” Horvick said. “You can look at that as a weakness but you can also look at that as an underlying opportunity for her. For me, that’s something to be paying attention to.”
Citing a compilation of polls from FiveThirtyEight, Goldberg noted that these polls are in line with others throughout the states. The election is now less than six weeks away.