Earlier this month, we covered the results of a Trafalgar Group poll out of Washington state, certainly not a state one would expect to be close. That poll showed Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) with just a lead of 2.9 percent, at 49.2 percent to her challenger, Republican Tiffany Smiley's 46.3 percent. As a new poll shows, though, this wasn't just a one-time thing.
New @trafalgar_group
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 26, 2022
#WASen #Poll (9/21-9/24) shows incumbent #Murray still holding small lead, but challenger #Smiley gaining. #wapol
48.7% @MurrayCampaign
46.5% @SmileyForWA
4.8% Und
See Report: https://t.co/Vafee0lWPg pic.twitter.com/fu00kjizZR
Sen. Murray is indeed still in the lead, but Smiley is gaining on her. Murray's numbers went down slightly, to 48.7, while her challenger is now at 46.5 percent, giving the incumbent a lead of 2.2 percent. Her lead was once at 2.9 percent. There's still nearly 5 percent of voters undecided.
The poll was conducted September 21-24, with 1,091 likely general election voters. With a margin of plus or minus 2.9 percent, Murray's lead is indeed within that margin.
Around the timing of that previous poll, Murray found herself in the news for actually saying she was "proud" of the way that Democrats handled the pandemic with school closures, and doubled down on her support of abortion up until birth by refusing to say what legal limits she supports.
While forecasters still give Murray the edge, it's worth noting that Inside Elections has the race as "Likely Democratic," which is not even the safest rating. With this latest poll, Murray's lead is at +7.7, according to RealClearPolitics.
This is not the first Trafalgar Group poll showing that while the Democrat is still in the lead, that lead looks to be slipping as the Republican is gaining. Another recent poll to do with the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania showed that John Fetterman went with a lead of 4.9 percent to 1.8 percent over Dr. Mehmet Oz.