Spencer and Katie have each covered today's painful inflation data -- and I wanted to chime in and fortify a few of the points that have been made, and inject a few other thoughts as well. This is the number one issue facing voters, and the difficult slog continues. The biggest problem seems to be that some key August measures were actually worse than forecast, in the face of many experts anticipating a bit more progress and easing. That didn't happen. The expectation was still far-too-hot inflation, but not this hot:
JUST IN: US inflation was 8.3% in August. That’s still way too high, but it is down slightly from 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June.
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 13, 2022
In a surprise, inflation ROSE 0.1% in August. (many expected a drop). Shelter, food and medical care went up, offsetting a 10%+ decline in gas prices
On the y/y figure: it was 8.3% (yes, down, vs 8.5% a month earlier & 9.1% before that). But the estimate was 8.1%. So it dropped by only half what was expected at a time with oil prices falling.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) September 13, 2022
Core m/m inflation is in the driver's seat, and it doubled. That's the alarm here.
Gas prices have fallen to less awful, but still very high levels -- which Biden is bragging about, despite having recently claimed that he has no control over the issue, and blaming Vladimir Putin and greedy oil companies and gas station owners. Despite this, key everyday expenses that are highly visible and top-of-mind continue to punish Americans:
Wow. Keep an eye on skyrocketing food costs.
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 13, 2022
"The food index increased 11.4% over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979."
Long also notes, "good at home up 13.5% in past year - largest since 1979. Rent is up 6.7% in past year - largest since 1986. Electricity up 15.8% - largest since 1981. Health insurance 24.3% - largest ever [increase]." More metrics across additional commodities and categories paint a bleak year-over-year picture:
Biden continues to deliver higher prices, lower wages.
— Jacki Kotkiewicz (@jackikotkiewicz) September 13, 2022
Overall CPI: +8.3% y/y
Gas: +25.6%
Fuel Oil: +68.8%
Electricity: +15.8%
Groceries: +13.5%
Meat, Poultry, & Fish: +8.8%
Milk: +17%
Eggs: +39.8%
Baby Food: +12.6%
Airline Fares: +33.4%
Real Average Hourly Earnings: -2.8%
The wages piece is especially hard for people, as their earnings increases continue to get wiped out by inflation, resulting in lower 'real' hourly earnings. "Inflation has been eating up wage gains since April 2021 and shows little sign of significant easing," writes Long. Obama administration economist Jason Furman calls the newly-released August report "not pretty," noting that broad-based inflation relief is "not coming." More analysis from this Democrat-aligned expert:
In sum, Core CPI is running ~4.5pp above the Fed's target (note the Fed actually targets another measure). Some is probably quirks & transitory, but hard to escape some concept of underlying inflation running about 2.5pp above the Fed's target.
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) September 13, 2022
Soft landing odds down a little.
Democrats can try to argue that inflation is a global phenomenon, driven by many complex factors beyond the power and influence of any American president. That's partially true. But we've noted previously that US inflation has been worse than what many other western nations have been experiencing, and part of the reason why is the insane government spending bender that Biden and the Democrats have been on for the last two years. This is absolutely relevant to the terrible pain Americans are feeling on inflation:
President Biden has added $??.?? ???????????????? to the deficits, including from:
— Marc Goldwein (@MarcGoldwein) September 13, 2022
? American Rescue Plan ($1.85t)
? Student debt relief ($750b)
? Bipartisan Infrastructure Law ($370b)
? Other laws ($800n)
? Other executive actions ($360b)
? Interest ($700b) https://t.co/yui2E692rJ
They dropped a nearly $2 trillion debt bomb on the economy at the very beginning of Biden's term, asserting that it would not be inflationary, and nobody was worried about that. When it started to fuel inflation, they insisted it was "transitory" and almost over. The excuses and spin keep changing, but their actions don't. They've shoveled more spending onto this fire, including with the so-called "Inflation Reduction Act" which spends a lot more money -- with CBO recently confirming that the supposed deficit reduction and savings (immediately wiped out by Biden's reckless and illegal student debt 'forgiveness' scheme) were even faker than first reported. And on the literal day that these new numbers have been released, the Biden White House is holding an official event to celebrate the 'Inflation Reduction Act,' which polls show the overwhelming majority of voters believe will not actually bring down inflation. Chef's kiss on the timing, guys:
“Today, we’re celebrating” https://t.co/XhgpL4jvyC
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 13, 2022
I'll leave you with this:
Grocery prices are up 13 percent, but don't worry you're also paying for your neighbor's grad school degree and his Tesla.
— David Harsanyi (@davidharsanyi) September 13, 2022