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Poll Indicates Democrats Not Doing Too Well With Independents

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  September 08, 2022 6:30 PM

In this partisan, polarized country, there's a keen interest in what independent voters think. As we've been covering for some time now at Townhall, independents are certainly no fan of President Joe Biden, though they preferred him to former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election, thus handing him his victory. As voters head to the polls two months from now, it's worth examining how independents feel about voting Democratic. 

First, when it comes to independents, they were not too thrilled with Biden's speech last Thursday outside of Independence Hall, during which he attacked his political opponents by demonizing "MAGA Republicans." 

A poll from the Trafalgar Group done with Convention of States Action found that 56.8 percent of overall respondents considered Biden's speech to be "a dangerous escalation in rhetoric" and "designed to incite conflict amongst Americans," with 62.4 percent of independents indicating as much. 

That poll was conducted September 2-5, so right after Biden's speech, with 1,084 likely general election voters and a margin of error of 2.9 percent. 

Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media seem to think that independents favor Biden now. In his September 5 column for the Washington Post, Max Boot praised the Biden speech, which is ironic, considering the results of the poll above from the Trafalgar Group/Convention of States Action. Boot cited no proof of such gains among independents. He also mentioned an NBC News poll claiming "Threats to democracy" was the greatest issue, a poll which has been debunked, even by those on the left. 

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As MSNBC's Steve Kornacki also pointed out when analyzing the poll, economic issues such as "cost of living" and "jobs/economy" were separated but need not have been since they fall under economic issues, and together would have surpassed the "threats to democracy" issue. 

Interactive Polls, though, highlighted polls showing the opposite of what Boot and his ilk claim.

This includes a Yahoo/YouGov poll, which shows Biden with just a 32 percent approval rating among independents, while 60 percent disapprove.  

While the generic Congressional ballot does have Democrats with a lead of 39 percent to 34 percent, independents are more likely to support Republicans, 32 percent to 26 percent. 

That poll was conducted September 2-6, with 1,634 adults and a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. 

What was the headline that the mainstream media went with for that poll, including Yahoo! News? Well, Andrew Romano wrote for the outlet that "Biden now leads Trump by widest margin in 6 months." Newsweek's Darragh Roche focused on the same headline with a piece earlier on Thursday, writing "Joe Biden Hammering Donald Trump in Latest Head-to-Head Poll." 

That poll shows Biden up 43 percent to 40 percent among adults and 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. 

Another particularly interesting way of measuring popularity is by historic trends. The 2018 midterm elections were not good for Republicans, as they often aren't for the president's party. Republicans lost 40 seats in the House, though they did gain two in the Senate. 

As Interactive Polls highlighted, Trump had a net approval rating among the coveted independents of -4. Meanwhile, Biden has a net approval rating with that same demographic of -37. 

And, as an overall important midterm election reminder that all ought to keep in mind, which Interactive Polls also highlighted earlier this summer, is that Republicans were underestimated in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. They went on to win 63 House seats and 13 House seats, respectively.