As we head into Labor Day weekend, the 2022 midterm season is winding down, though a lot of time remains on the clock for candidates to either seal the deal or sow the seeds of their destruction. In some races, the entire dynamic can be altered irreparable based on one debate performance, which is something that Democrat John Fetterman’s team knows in Pennsylvania. Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, has been recovering from a stroke, and it’s painfully evident from his recent campaign stops. The man cannot put sentences together, which is why Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz desperately wants a debate or three.
The jobs report today showed that the unemployment rate ticked up, we’re still in an economic recession, and inflation remains at historic highs. So, why are Democrats cheering? Joe Biden’s approvals finally entered the 40s, but that was a fleeting event. He’s back into the high 30s, and that’s from heavy Democrat-leaning polls. The New York Times chucked a wet blanket on the buoyed hopes that Democrats are seeing. Election Day is still weeks away, and there is a gross misinterpretation of events occurring among media and Democratic Party operatives regarding things like the Alaska at-large special election and the Kansas abortion initiative.
Blake Hounshell penned an excellent article that tempered liberal hopes, noting that a deluge of Republican cash is coming, which is essential for late-stage media buys. The Republican establishment has, for the most part, this cycle remained idle, with Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who has been tasked with retaking the upper chamber, blowing it. He altered the allocation regarding fundraising and has diverted significant amounts of cash to bolster his political position. Hounshell added that when Mitch McConnell appeared to cede defeat in the GOP’s 2022 Senate hunt, blaming “candidate quality,” he was also taking a stab at Scott for refusing to weed out alleged extremist candidates. And by that, we mean die-hard Trump candidates or those whose lack of experience, an aspect that seems to rub McConnell the wrong way.
Hounshell also noted that the coastal elites may have played a part in temporarily boosting Biden’s poll numbers that don’t translate to anything positive for Democrats running in this year’s battleground states (via NYT):
Republicans might very well do better than the pundits expect. And that is keeping some Democratic strategists up at night.
This is true for two main reasons: a flood of outside money that is about to hit the airwaves on Republicans’ behalf, and polling that indicates that the political environment remains a problem for Democratic candidates, despite their party’s recent string of accomplishments.
[…]
… unlike in the House, which is more sensitive to national trends, Senate races tend to be state-by-state contests. So it’s possible that coastal Democratic strongholds like California and New York are pushing up Biden’s numbers in ways that aren’t reflected in battleground states.
[…]
Democrats have a forgiving map this year: They just need to hang on to all five battleground seats to maintain control of the Senate, though they would also love to pick up Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which gives them a little more room for error.
There’s been no sustainable bump from the so-called inflation reduction bill that utilized Chinese math to whitewash that this spending bill will do nothing to curb the rampant inflation that’s been killing America’s working class. After passage, the media and the Democrats didn’t mention inflation, instead harping on the climate change provisions that some laughably declared just averted human civilization from destruction.
After this bill, Biden slaps the working class again by making them partially pick up the tab for the most privileged in America—the college-educated—in an arguably illegal bailout on student loans. The elites wonder how someone like Donald Trump could secure a major party’s nomination and win a presidential race. Well, they’re laying the groundwork for more like him with these policies that only help the smallest and most aristocratic segments of the population.
Yet, there has been a shake-up on the fundraising side for the GOP, which the article explains nicely. The late Sheldon Adelson’s wife doesn’t appear too eager to be in the political game, the Koch brothers have eschewed political campaigns for criminal justice reform, and the Mercers are still dealing with the kerfuffle that occurred between them and Steve Bannon.
Both sides have their issues, but for the Democrats to jump for glee while Biden’s approvals remain dismal, compounded by serial domestic and foreign policy shortfalls, is amusing. The inflation and economic recession alone are reasons for everyone, even the most ardent Democrat, to keep that champagne chilled and unopened. They may need to switch orders and grab vast bourbon casks to drown their sorrows.
Lastly, what about abortion? Sure, it energizes Democratic voters, but again—they already infest the bluest parts of the country. There’s no upside. The voter initiative to amend Kansas’ state constitution to add a more pro-life clause went down in flames. Still, liberals failed to understand that the Jayhawker State already bans federal and public funding of abortion, has parental consent laws, and bans the procedure after 22 weeks. It’s not California on this issue and paints a picture of where the issue stands with voters. There would be no outright ban on abortion, but it will come with a slew of stringent regulations that most progressives now view as anathema.
The other side of this coin is that the Left has to explain why abortion up until the moment of birth is not murder, and they’ve failed to explain that this far.
I’ll still bank on the economy as the most pressing issue for voters, and on that—Democrats have failed miserably.
Then again, the GOP leadership's malaise in recent months, especially with the Senate races, has given Democrats reasons to be more hopeful. It remains the GOP's midterm to lose, and while there is still time for struggling Republicans to turn things around--it's not out of the realm of possibility that they blow it.