Democrat Pat Ryan defeated GOP opponent Marc Molinaro in Tuesday’s special election for New York’s 19th Congressional District.
The race in the swing district has been called a bellwether for the midterm elections in November, with voters’ preferences aligning with the national winner in the last four presidential elections.
Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive, criticized Ryan, the Ulster County executive, over inflation, crime, and gas prices. The National Republican Congressional Committee also hit the Democrat on these points, highlighting his “anti-law enforcement agenda” and for being someone who’d serve as a “rubber stamp for Washington Democrats’ failed progressive agenda.”
Ryan, meanwhile, criticized his opponent over abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats are taking the special election as a positive sign of the impact the issue could have in races come November.
While Tuesday’s outcome could be a sign of what's to come in November, Roll Call points out it's a bit more complicated than that given the seat will only remain a little while longer until a new congressional map goes into effect.
Yes, President Joe Biden carried this district by about 1.5 points in 2020 after Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton lost it by 1.7 points. And yes, there have been efforts to make the race a national referendum on everything from the president's handling of inflation to the Supreme Court's recent opinions on abortion and guns. But an August special election in a redistricting cycle on the same day as the House primary using different maps for November contests may be more complicated than that.
Republican Marc Molinaro, the 2018 GOP nominee for governor, is running in the special election to serve the remaining months of Delgado's term, and in the November election for a full two-year term. Both elections are being run in the 19th District, but the constituents voting in those elections on Tuesday and in November will be different. He's trying to keep the focus on voters rather than national politics. [...]
Win or lose in the special on Tuesday, Ryan will also be running in November, but that race will be in the 18th District, not the 19th, because of where his home ended up in redistricting. Molinaro tried to use that as a reason not to elect Ryan in the special election.
"With all due respect to Pat, on Aug. 24, he's going to begin campaigning in Orange and Putnam and southern Dutchess County. This county needs a representative on Aug. 24, Sullivan County needs a representative on Aug. 24," Molinaro said. "There is no personal alive who thinks on Aug. 24, he would be able to serve this district while running in an entirely different one." (Roll Call)
Molinaro will face Josh Riley, the Democratic primary winner for the 19th District, in November, while Ryan will be up against Republican Assemblyman Colin Schmitt in the 18th District, meaning there's a chance the two could serve in the 118th Congress together.