Tipsheet

Harvard Poll Shows Who Would Win in a Trump/Biden and Trump/Harris 2024 Matchup

The latest numbers from the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll brings more bad new for the Biden administration as Americans continue to view the country's prospects under Democrat control less and less favorably in July. 

Things have evidently gotten so rough under Biden and Harris that one data point — a question about a hypothetical presidential election contest — again showed President Donald Trump beating both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. 

In the Trump v. Biden rematch if the election were held now, 45 percent of registered voters picked Donald Trump while just 41 percent picked Joe Biden. And in the hypothetical contest between Trump and VP Harris, Trump again wins with 47 percent to Harris' 40 percent, who performed even worse than Biden. 

And, in a blow to Nancy Pelosi and Liz Cheney's select committee billed as investigating the events of January 6 and transparently geared at hurting Republicans and preventing Trump from seeking office again, more than half of registered voters — 55 percent — said the J6 committee's hearing were not conducted fairly. And the recent news about a formal DOJ investigation into Trump's actions related to January 6 has led even more voters — 61 percent — to believe the probe is politically motivated.

The preference for President Trump is unsurprising given how many campaign pledges Biden has failed to deliver on, paired with other new crises that have arisen due to his administration's policies or remain unmitigated on his watch. As the co-director of Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey explained to The Hill, "Biden is a very weak Democratic nominee and would lose even the popular vote in a rematch today." 

Biden's 2024 plans remain apparently up in the air, with the White House refusing to comment on growing questions — and doubts — from Democrats and mainstream media figures that Biden can manage another presidential campaign or another four years as president. An increasing number of Democrats in Congress are either refusing to say whether they want Biden to run for reelection while some have started openly advocating against an attempt at a second term.

The July update to the Harvard Caps-Harris Poll also showed that out of the Trump/Harris/Biden grouping, Trump maintains the highest favorability rating while Harris comes in last. 

Among respondents, 44 percent have a favorable view of Trump while 37 percent view Biden favorably and only 36 percent hold a favorable view of Harris.

That disparity between Trump and the Biden administration's top two officials is also borne out in respondents wishes for candidates in 2024. A full 69 percent of registered voters don't want Biden to seek a second term, while a smaller 59 percent don't want Trump to run again.

July's Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, first scooped by The Hill, surveyed 1,885 registered voters from July 27-28.