Arizona was going to be tight. Trafalgar, the most accurate battleground state poll in 2016, showed Trump with a two-point lead. It was going to be another squeaker. Right now, Fox News says that Mark Kelly has defeated Sen. Martha McSally and Joe Biden has taken the state. It’s a flip, right?
ARIZONA
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 1, 2020
Trump 49% (+3)
Biden 46%
Jorgensen 2%@trafalgar_group, LV, 10/25-28
New @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #AZpoll conducted 10/25-28 shows undecideds starting to break and Trump still ahead:
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 31, 2020
48.9% @realDonaldTrump,
46.4% @JoeBiden,
2.3% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.7% Other,
0.7% Und. See Report: https://t.co/82DWAxq44d pic.twitter.com/jV0U6s2uTU
Not really. No one else has called this race, except for Fox News, which has raised the eyebrows of many. Arizona is called, but North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and other key states aren’t. Why?
BREAKING: Mark Kelly (D) has defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R) in the Arizona Senate race, @FoxNews projects.
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 4, 2020
Former astronaut Mark Kelly beats Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona’s special election faceoff, Fox News projectshttps://t.co/jc9GzdILdt
— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 4, 2020
Mark Kelly also called for Democrats, a Senate pickup for Dems.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 4, 2020
Unofficial election results: The first wave of election results in Arizona have been released.
— ABC15 Arizona (@abc15) November 4, 2020
According to those results:
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump, 54%-45%
Mark Kelly leads Martha McSally, 55%-45%
Prop 207 (marijuana): Yes leads 60%-40%
RESULTS: https://t.co/ECR4RgG9GX pic.twitter.com/ECHAAqpH9m
Calling AZ before TX, FL, GA, NC is ... odd
— Matthew Continetti (@continetti) November 4, 2020
Now, as I’m writing this, Texas and Ohio have been called for Trump.
I've talked to several Trump campaign advisers, and I can't convey how furious the campaign is at Fox for its completely unjustified AZ call for Biden. They say when not even CNN and MSNBC have called a race for the Democrat, you know something is up.
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) November 4, 2020
It’s far too early to call the election in Arizona. Election Day votes are not fully reported, and we haven’t even started to count early ballots dropped off at the polls. In AZ, we protected Election Day. Let’s count the votes — all the votes — before making declarations.
— Doug Ducey (@dougducey) November 4, 2020
ZERO Election Day votes have been counted yet. This is purely conjecture and insanely irresponsible. https://t.co/2J3CUN9mtG
— Natalie Johnson (@nataliejohnsonn) November 4, 2020
There appears to be a whole swath of Election Day votes that haven’t even been counted. Also, CNN and MSNBC have yet to call the race. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey tweeted, “It’s far too early to call the election in Arizona. Election Day votes are not fully reported, and we haven’t even started to count early ballots dropped off at the polls. In AZ, we protected Election Day. Let’s count the votes — all the votes — before making declarations.”
I thought it would be very close. Trump winning by a hair and Kelly winning by 1-2 pts.
— jon gabriel (@exjon) November 4, 2020
The count has been lodged at 73% or so since very early.
According to the Maricopa County recorder's website, zero votes have been reported for FOUR hours. And zero votes from Election Day. What's up, @RecorderFontes?
— jon gabriel (@exjon) November 4, 2020
Trump is typically gaining votes 2 to 1 on updates right now.
— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 4, 2020
My AZ sources are adamant that the state is not decided.
— Hugh Hewitt (@hughhewitt) November 4, 2020
Ricochet’s Jon Gabriel, an Arizona native, tweeted that he felt the race would be close, but noted that returns have remained lodged at 73 percent.
“Not an elections expert at all (obvs). But in the past, AZ results are updated several times an hour until they're all done. Been close to 2 hours since new data came in. Results from Maricopa are at 0%. From Pima, 1.2%,” Gabriel added.
Stay tuned.
***
Sen. Martha McSally is not conceding.
2) "With one million votes to be counted and no Election Day results reported from Maricopa County, the decision to make a call at this point is irresponsible. We will continue to wait for votes to come in. This race is not over.” McSally spokeswoman Caroline Anderegg
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 4, 2020