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'Trump Narrows the Gap': Latest Rasmussen Poll Shows Trump Traction

Madeline Peltzer
Madeline Peltzer  |  July 15, 2020 7:55 PM

A new survey by Rasmussen Reports has some encouraging statistics for the president and his supporters. 

The report, released Wednesday, found that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden was up only three percentage points over President Trump. According to the survey, 47 percent of voters prefer Biden compared to Trump's 44 percent. The results come just a week after the pollster reported that the president trailed presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 10 points.

Trump’s traction comes from a shift in independent voters, who gave Biden a 12-point lead in last week’s poll. But the survey revealed another insightful statistic. Among likely black voters, Trump holds 31 percent support, up from 21 percent last week. Only eight percent of blacks voted for Trump in the 2016 election. 

Rasmussen’s findings come in the wake of months of civil unrest and destruction, much of which has taken place in predominantly black and low-income communities. As elected officials slash funding from law enforcement and instruct police to stand down in conflicts, many precincts are being forced to eliminate bureaus such as their detective units and plainclothes police units. Officers in cities like Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Buffalo have walked off the job. As a result, crime has spiked, claiming the lives of victims like 1-year-old Davell Gardner Jr., who was shot in the stomach on Sunday while sitting in his stroller, and 8-year-old Secoriea Turner who was shot while sitting in a car with her mother on July 4.  

In response, President Trump has championed a message of “law and order” and the “Great American Comeback,” themes he drew upon in his Mount Rushmore speech on July 3. He has also contrasted himself with Biden, who has asserted that some funding should "absolutely" be redirected from the police.  

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The president has also pointed to the economic opportunity black Americans have enjoyed under his administration. Before the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial losses due to rioting, African Americans saw record-low unemployment rates as the United States job market surged, a point which even outlets like CNBC were forced to admit.

In addition, it follows Biden’s infamous message to black voters, “If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't black.” The black vote has been a mainstay of the Democratic Party for decades, but movements like BLEXIT may threaten that assumption.  

It’s not the first time that pollsters have reported a rise in minority support for the president. At the beginning of June in the midst of the upheaval following the death of George Floyd, Rasmussen found that the president’s support among African-American likely voters peaked at an all-time high of 41 percent. In November, an Emerson Poll found that approval for Trump among blacks topped 34 percent. Similarly, a CNN poll also conducted in November found approval among non-white voters at 26 percent.

Polls at this point in the 2016 race were scattered and much can happen between now and November. Nonetheless, the findings come as a much-needed morale boost for the White House.