A truly harrowing assessment from one of the country's top experts. In an interview on CNN, Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the United States will endure "millions" of Coronavirus infections, with deaths reaching low six figures. This, as Dr. Deborah Birx warns Americans that no significant populations centers will be spared. Many people are understandably puzzling through what comes next, in 'phase two' of the pandemic -- but we cannot lose sight of the fact that we are the teeth of 'phase one,' and it's going to get worse:
ANTHONY FAUCI: “Looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 cases. But I don't want to be held to that, because it’s — excuse me, deaths. We're going to have millions of cases." pic.twitter.com/4172IARgf8
— JM Rieger (@RiegerReport) March 29, 2020
His answer is credible because he's highly credible, but it also aligns with other experts' views:
An expert survey conducted ~2 weeks ago forecasted 200K deaths in the U.S., although with a *very* wide range of possibilities. Revised slightly upward to 246K this week. But Dr. Fauci's estimate of 100K+ deaths is broadly in line with the consensus.https://t.co/oMWfVdQVVd
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 29, 2020
A "very wide range of possibilities" is right. Meanwhile, as people search for hopeful trends, this could be good news out of Italy, although a fleeting downtick in New York City hospitalizations reversed itself overnight (though this might be welcome information). One area of clear improvement is on testing -- which is a double-edged sword because many more tests being administered will inevitably drive infection numbers far higher, but it will also assist in identifying emerging hotspots and mitigating the disease's spread (including the coming county-by-county ratings outlined by the president):
BREAKING: We’re launching a test that can detect COVID-19 in as little as 5 minutes—bringing rapid testing to the frontlines. https://t.co/LqnRpPpqMM pic.twitter.com/W8jyN2az8G
— Abbott (@AbbottNews) March 27, 2020
Dr. Scott Gottlieb calls these developments a "game changer," even as he admonishes the public about worrying signs in the data ("April will be hard"):
This is now a national epidemic with multiple epicenters. New Orleans, Dallas, Miami, Chicago, Detroit, Boston, Philadelphia, Los Angeles are among cities doubling cases every 3 to 4 days. This reality may severely stretch our ability to federally assist local healthcare systems. pic.twitter.com/8wbTO28SCO
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) March 29, 2020
Gottlieb has also co-written a detailed plan about where the country goes from here. The four-phase roadmap itself is here, and a Washington Post op/ed about it is here. And for a quick summary, here he is outlining key pieces of the proposal on Face the Nation:
WHAT COMES NEXT? @ScottGottliebMD tells @margbrennan that a new report out this morning - which he co-authored - suggests waiting for a two week decline in new #coronavirus cases before beginning to resume normal day-to-day activities pic.twitter.com/HfcFh63ICH
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) March 29, 2020
I'll leave you with this thought: As widespread mask usage starts to become a new standard, this regulatory idiocy needs to be swept aside in order to get these pieces of equipment into the hands of medical professionals first, and then the general public, as soon as possible:
JUST IN: Gov. DeWine announced the FDA has authorized Columbus-based Battelle to sterilize only 10,000 surgical masks in Ohio each day, despite their ability to sterilize up to 160,000 masks per day in Ohio alone. https://t.co/d5k0z6ghtx
— NBC4 Columbus (@nbc4i) March 29, 2020