As 2019 wrapped up Karl Rove penned his annual predictions column, which reviewed how correct he was last year, and put in writing his thoughts on what he believes will happen with the John Durham probe, how the economy and trade will look, as well as how the 2020 election will unfold.
The former adviser to President George W. Bush said he thinks there will be a contested convention.
“Pete Buttigieg wins Iowa, but no Democrat arrives at the convention with a majority,” he wrote in The Wall Street Jouranl. “The nomination requires delegates switching sides after the initial first vote or a second ballot where superdelegates are permitted to participate. I pick Mr. Biden to win, but I’d take the field if I could."
He also predicted that Trump will again fall behind in the popular vote due to Democratic efforts to focus on California and New York, but will win Florida and Ohio.
“Because Democrats are concentrated in California and New York, Mr. Trump trails in the popular vote. Mr. Trump wins Florida. Ohio, now redder, isn’t in play. Iowa swings Democratic. Mr. Trump does better than in 2016 among African-American and Latino voters," he wrote.
“The election again comes down to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin," Rove continued. "Mr. Trump must win at least two. They’re settled by a wider margin than the 77,744 votes of the 13,940,912 these Blue Wall states cast in 2016. Victory depends on Mr. Trump’s discipline and whom the Democrats nominate. If it’s Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump has an uphill fight; if not, the president wins."
Despite Democrats like Rep. Tulsi Gabbard saying she believes impeachment will help Republicans take back the House, Rove thinks the gavel will stay in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s hands.
“Republicans keep the Senate and Democrats the House, both with smaller majorities,” he said.