Tipsheet

Trump Camp in Disarray: Hillary Crushing GOP Rival on Ads and Ground Game

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  June 20, 2016 1:45 PM

The news that Donald Trump has fired his campaign manager -- "like a dog!" -- speaks for itself. His campaign's flagging polling position and his spiking unfavorables have triggered a new round of deep concerns among Republicans that Trump is headed for a general election loss. Something had to be done, it seems, and Lewandowski got the axe. Read this Allahpundit post reviewing the timing of, and machinations behind, the high-profile ouster, including multiple reports that Trump's daughter Ivanka was instrumental in pushing Lewandowski out. The Michelle Fields incident, it seems, was a tipping point after all; this development deals another blow to the Trump's "surrounded by the best people" assurances, which have long been undermined by his own actions and statements. Regardless of the signals this major shake-up may send about the state of Trump's campaign (and setting aside the expressions of shock and descriptions of chaos within the ranks), there are other data points that are hoisting red flags. Based on numbers compiled by the Washington Post, some are suggesting that Trump isn't even trying to run a competent general election campaign. He reportedly only has 30 (!) paid staff on the ground nationwide, total. Here's how that stacks up against the Democratic machine, which proved conclusively in 2012 that ground game is essential:

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And even if Trump believes that he'll continue to coast on "free media," he isn't even competing at all on paid TV advertising.  When Trump shrugs off his polling slide by commenting that he 'hasn't even started' yet, or whatever, he might mean that literally:

The problem, of course, is that Democrats used the summer months to pound away at Mitt Romney's image -- from which the former Massachusetts governor was never able to recover, despite his dominant performance in the first presidential debate.  The Trump recently said that he may have to self-fund his campaign against Mrs. Clinton if the party isn't backing him to the hilt.  With his campaign's fundraising evidently looking bad, maybe it's time for him to make good on those musings. Meanwhile, Trump's standing in the race has sustained some real blows:

As supporters and GOP leaders wait (almost certainly in vain) for the professional, presidential pivot they were promised during primary season, Trump seems intent on maintaining his previous mindset, instinctively resorting to slams against vanquished Republican competitors:

The truth is that the more erratic and dysfunctional Trump gets -- and the uglier the numbers get, if they continue to slide -- the more likely it is that "delegates mull dumping Trump" whispers and headlines will continue to percolate, even though that actual outcomes is fantastically far-fetched and likely counter-productive.  I'll leave you with this.  One may feel committed to Making America Great Again, but everything has a price tag with some people:

UPDATE - Two new polls today, showing Trump losing by five and eight points, respectively. It's these types of numbers that probably helped seal Lewandowski's fate: