That Nate Silver Trendline Is Not Good News for Kamala

Matt Vespa | October 16, 2024 6:50 AM

That media blitz did Kamala Harris no favors: her favorability fell by 9 points. In NBC News’ September poll, they had her up 5 points over Donald Trump; she’s now tied. One undeniable fact is that Donald Trump has been more popular since arriving on the political scene. He’s polling the best he’s ever done this cycle. Kamala is collapsing, evidenced by the scrambling to home in on any message that can stop the downward slide.

Regardless, even though this is where you want to be if you’re Donald Trump, you can’t get complacent—and the former president is acting as she should in a tight race. He’s doing as many interviews as possible, even veering into unfriendly territory, as we saw with the Chicago Economic Forum this week.

Kamala is now running away from the media, though pondering a sit-down with Joe Rogan, who will eat her alive, in a bid to appeal to male voters. She’s also facing deficits with Hispanic voters, black voters, especially black men, Jewish voters, and the working class. The vice president’s economic message also isn’t resonating. She raised a billion dollars to come away with a tie with Trump. It’s just brutal. She has many issues to address and insufficient time to do them all.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver, whose Electoral College projection had Harris in the driver's seat with 55-plus percent, has reset the model again. Harris has a 50.1 percent chance of clinching 270. Trump has a 49.7 percent chance:

Well, we keep emphasizing that the forecast is really close. After another day of polls showing an essentially tied race in the Midwestern battlegrounds, it’s now literally 50/50. We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate. It hasn’t been a huge swing, but even a half point to a point makes a difference.