Another Reason to Be Optimistic? Biden Is Underperforming Hillary Clinton's 2016 Numbers In Key States

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Posted: Oct 20, 2020 5:50 PM
Another Reason to Be Optimistic? Biden Is Underperforming Hillary Clinton's 2016 Numbers In Key States

Source: AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

Look, I think we’re going to win in two weeks’ time. I’m also open to the fact that I’m wrong and we’re heading for a Joe Biden landslide, which will destroy the economy. There is nothing that can be said about the polling that hasn’t already been said. Democrats are being oversampled. Trump Democrats are being ignored. Rural Republicans are being undersampled. And the demographics from the rallies are another eye-opener. We have roughly 25 percent of the attendees who had never voted before ever coming to these events. 

Democracy Institute Patrick Basham noted that his poll found that Trump Democrats will be a larger share, that black urban women will fall into the shy Trump voter category, and that one million fewer young people are projected to vote. That’s all bad news for Democrats. So, while you ponder that, David Harsanyi wrote over at National Review that despite all those polls showing Biden with this solid lead, he’s underperforming Hillary Clinton’s numbers in these key states during her failed 2016 run:

On October 20, 2016:

Hillary Clinton was up 6.8 in the RealClearPolitics average in Pennsylvania. Today, Biden is up 3.8. (that race only tightened to 2.1 in the last week of 2016.)

Clinton was up twelve points in Michigan on that day. Biden is up 7.5 right now.

Clinton was up 6.5 in Wisconsin. Biden is up 6.2.

Clinton was up four points in Florida. Biden is up one point.

Clinton was up 2.8 in North Carolina. Biden is up two points.

Maybe there was something to Biden’s campaign manager admitting that the national poll numbers were inflated. At the same time, I still think Democrats are petrified of falling into the 2016 trap again, where their base is so confident of a win that they don’t vote. 

Either way, there’s no middle ground here regarding the polling. We’re either right or really, really wrong.