Again, David Chapman and PollWatch are two good accounts that have been tracking the polling this cycle and cutting through the nonsense from the liberal media. There’s been a lot of funny business with the polling folks. Firms conducting polls around the same time but getting different results. We have shy Trump voters. We have youth vote interest tanking in this election cycle to levels not seen since 2000. Some polls have one million fewer young people voting this year. But somehow Biden is going to win by like 12 points. It’s unreliable to the nth degree. So, what Chapman did was compile a thread that cuts through a lot of the liberal media silliness out there. For starters, he nixes the idea that bad economies kill incumbents. Yes, that was the case for Bush 41, but historically the incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during an economic downturn.
And speaking of incumbents, Chapman added, “no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.”
Oh, and it gets better.
“Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,” wrote Chapman “What about polls? Well, polls are predicting Trump's win. The ABC poll shows Trump with a 19-point enthusiasm advantage.”
He noted that every candidate who held the edge in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won the election.
During Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination hearing, we heard a lot about history and how it’s against the GOP in filling this SCOTUS vacancy left by the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Well, here’s some bad news for Biden. No one who served more than 15 years in the Senate has been elected president. Joe Biden has been there for nearly four decades.
It’s why Chapman added that by every historic metric and trend, Trump is the one on the path to winning this election. Take a look and read for yourself. There’s some good stuff here.
Thread on my election prediction:
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
My prediction is based solely on history and historical trends.
The biggest issue in the campaign is Covid-19.
There has been 11 Incumbents to face a pandemic during re-election. The incumbent is 11-0 (1820-present).
many experts say bad economies end incumbents careers.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
This is not true. The incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during a bad economy.
There is a huge correlation to primary performance with this historical trend.
since the first primary in 1912, 7 incumbents have faced a bad economy during re-election. 5 of those incumbents had very poor primary performances and lost. 2 of them had strong primary performances and won re-election.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
In fact, no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
Trump is only 1 of 5 incumbents since 1912 to receive 90% or more of the primary vote.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
We've never seen primary participation levels for an incumbent like we did in the 2020 GOP primary. Trump set a record for most votes received by an incumbent with 18.1M.
The previous record was held by Bill Clinton with 9.7M primary votes.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
We have also had riots. Incumbents are 6-6 when facing re-election during civil unrest, but 4-0 when facing a pandemic and civil unrest.
Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
What about polls?
well, polls are predicting Trump's win. The ABC poll shows Trump with a 19 point enthusiasm advantage.
Every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm, has won the election.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
Pew gives Trump a 20 pt advantage in strength of support. The leader in this poll has won every election since 1964.
All polls show voters expect Trump to win. The expectation question is more accurate...
than the voter intention question that has Biden leading.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
Since 2004, the candidate that led in google searches has won the election. Trump leads Biden in google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1.
On Polls
The larger the class divide in the electorate, the larger the polling error
There has been many elections where polls just failed to predict anything.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
1948, 1952, 1976, 1980, 1996, 2000, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 all had major polling errors.
In 2012, the current trend of low response rates began. Since 2012, polls have gotten worse.
The 2018 polls were not better than 2016, they were worse. Polls are incapable of predicting anything. especially with cancel culture and pollsters insistence on going in the field during major news events. 2020 has been one long major news event....
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
so the likelihood of a large response bias is high this year.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
Joe Biden also has a history against him.
No one who served 15 years in the Senate has ever become president. Joe Biden has served 36 years.
The 14 year rule - No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency. Biden needed 36 years to become VP.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
History is against Biden and in favor of Trump.
The only thing that shows Biden winning are polls. By every historical metric and trend, Donald Trump will win this election.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
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