Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics is out with initial gubernatorial ratings for 2026 identifying two toss-ups at this point.
Noting historical trends in midterm elections, where the party in power typically loses seats in the House and Senate, the analysis emphasizes this tendency also extends to governorships. Where party changes are historically more likely to occur is in open seats rather than those defended by incumbents, the analysis adds.
Looking ahead to 2026, Sabato’s Crystal Ball identifies Michigan and Arizona as the two gubernatorial races that are starting in the toss-up category.
— The only incumbent starting in the Toss-up category is Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ). Hobbs also benefited from a weak opponent in 2022—Republican Kari Lake (who went on to lose a Senate race in 2024)—and may face a stronger challenger in 2026, although she is not guaranteed to. Donald Trump has endorsed both wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson—who quite possibly would have beaten Hobbs had she not lost the 2022 primary to Lake—as well as right-wing Rep. Andy Biggs (R, AZ-5), a more recent entrant who would be the more enticing opponent for Hobbs. Arizona lurched back to the right in 2024 after drifting toward Democrats in 2020—it was Trump’s best state among the seven key states last year—and while Hobbs has an OK approval rating, we think she could be in for a difficult reelection. Hobbs did avoid a primary of her own when Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) elected to run for reelection, but there nonetheless is some tension in the state Democratic Party in a state where internal Republican upheaval has been more common (the state’s Democratic Party chairman is currently feuding with the state’s two Democratic senators).
— Michigan, another place where Democrats are playing defense, also starts in Toss-up. Outgoing Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, elected to his current job as a Democrat, is currently running for governor as an independent, which complicates the overall picture as term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) attempts to hand off the governorship to another Democrat. A Democrat has not succeeded another Democrat as Michigan governor since 1960, although these sorts of historical streaks are made to be broken—we once noted how Pennsylvania had a longstanding trend of alternating between eight years of one party followed by eight years of another. That was true until it wasn’t: Democrats have now won three straight elections there and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is favored to win a fourth. The major parties seem likelier than not to have credentialed candidates in this race: for Democrats, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist are in the field, while Rep. John James (R, MI-10), who ran respectable races for Senate in 2018 and 2020, is the early frontrunner among Republicans. (Center for Politics)
Georgia could possibly be a toss-up but the forecasters are waiting to see how the race develops before placing it in this category.
NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball@kkondik has our initial gubernatorial ratings for 2026, with a focus on familiar battlegrounds but where open seats could lead to upsets pic.twitter.com/Q7pXR7ngrZ
— Center for Politics at UVA (@Center4Politics) May 1, 2025
