The polls show a toss-up race between Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, but top Democrats “feel” the vice president is going to lose, according to a new report in Axios.
No matter what Harris does on the campaign trail, and despite Democrats spending a whopping $1 billion over the last three months working on her image, the left is frustrated that nothing seems to be moving the needle.
The report comes after Nate Silver said he too has a gut feeling that Harris will lose, though cautioned that doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Axios also emphasizes that they’re not saying the game is already over for Harris—the race is still very much a dead head. Still, there are many troubling signs.
[T]op Democrats are already starting to point fingers at who'd be more responsible for a Harris loss — President Biden for dragging his feet, or Harris herself. "Going down?" a top Democratic official texted.
- Democrats fear she has made too many different cases against Trump, and still hasn't fully revealed herself to voters, who crave to know more.
- "She is who she is," one longtime Democratic strategist said. "Let's hope it's enough.” […]
The big picture: A common gripe among high-level Dems is that Harris does a nice job explaining why people shouldn't vote for Trump — but struggles to crisply explain why they should vote for her. In other words, she's a strong prosecutor — but struggles as a public defender. […]
Zoom in: Democrats once felt very good about Nevada, a state Biden won in 2020. But early voting has them panicked. Jon Ralston, the top Nevada election expert, writes that the surge in early rural Republican voting — a "rural tsunami" — is ominous for Harris: "There is no good news in these numbers for Dems."
- Pennsylvania continues to worry Harris, despite Biden winning there in 2020. Among the seven swing states, it's the one campaign insiders think she absolutely has to win, with signs of GOP momentum in the state's Senate race.
Reality check: Harris inherited a very tough hand. Establishing and executing a campaign for president starting just 3½ months before an election is unprecedented in modern politics.
- Besides Biden being unpopular, inflation has been the incumbent killer globally. Polls and election results in Canada, the U.K., France, Germany, Japan and South Korea all show this anti-incumbent tide. (Axios)
Axios also gave away the game when it comes to what argument the left will present if Harris does lose: Americans are too racist and misogynistic.
"We can't ignore the reality that no matter what Harris says or does, this country has never elected a woman president and only once elected a Black president," the report concludes. "It's never elected a Black woman. Toss in broad concerns about immigration and inflation, and it's a lot to overcome, her advisers say."
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