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Tipsheet

Will the SCOTUS Leak Be a Game-changer in the Midterms? CNN Poll Offers a Clue.

AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu, File

Last week, after the draft opinion showing the Supreme Court voting to overturn Roe v. Wade was leaked, NBC reported on the “potentially seismic shift in the political landscape” it has caused and the energy the issue has given to Democrats who are dealing with brutal poll numbers and “a deficiency in effective messaging” as the midterms approach.

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In that same article, Republican strategists explained why they planned to stick to kitchen table issues.

“Democrats are hoping they’ll be able to use this issue to get voters to forget they’re paying $4 for a gallon of gas and double what they’ve been paying at the grocery store and they’ll stop caring about violent crime and the open border,” the GOP strategist told NBC. “But until I see polling showing that’s the case, I don’t buy it.”

According to a new CNN poll, it looks like the strategist is right. 

Sixty-six percent say Roe v. Wade should not be completely struck down, and 59% would support Congress passing legislation to establish a nationwide right to abortion, including 81% of Democrats, 65% of independents and 30% of Republicans, the survey finds.

But comparing the results of the new poll to one conducted immediately before the revelation of the draft opinion, the impact on the political landscape heading into the 2022 midterms appears fairly muted.

The share of registered voters who say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall rose 6 points between the first survey and the second, but that increase is about even across party lines. Among Democrats, 43% now say they are extremely or very enthusiastic, up 7 points. Among Republicans, it's 56%, up 9 points. And voters who say overturning Roe would make them "happy" are nearly twice as enthusiastic about voting this fall as those who say such a ruling would leave them "angry" (38% extremely enthusiastic among those happy, 20% among those angry). (CNN)

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While much could change between now and November, the poll's findings paint a midterm election picture at the moment that is "little changed after this week's news," CNN reports. 

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