Watch the 10 year treasury It portends trouble

John Ransom | September 11, 2013 1:43 AM

I like to watch divergences in the market. One of the divergences that is curious right now is the strong upward pressure from the stock market versus the downward pressure of the 10 year treasury.

The benchmark ten year treasury finished down on Tuesday, which means that interest rates have gone up.

With the close at 2.96% that means that the 10 year treasury rates have gone up 100% since May.

And sure some of that is taper talk, some of that Syria, some of it's uncertainty. But that kind of movement in the 10 year treasury market- the benchmark off of which other interest rates are posted- does not portend well for the stock market.

The stock market follows the bond market. Watch where the bond market's going and you'll have a good idea where the stock market will eventually be.