To recap where things currently stand, the bipartisan infrastructure proposal -- which is partly defensible on substance and tactics, in my view, but fails the 'paid for' test -- has passed the US Senate. The upper chamber has also voted, precisely along party lines, to advance a truly gargantuan 'human infrastructure' Democratic spending plan using a filibuster-avoiding budgetary tool called 'reconciliation.' While Chuck Schumer's team stood together on this week's procedural vote, a handful of his more moderate members have warned that the $3.5 trillion price tag being discussed it unacceptably high. And for what it's worth, nonpartisan analysts are warning that this proposed top line number is a dramatic underestimate of the plan's true cost:
Democrats have provided few details of what they plan to include in Sen. Bernie Sanders’s $3.5 trillion budget proposal, and now we know why. The real cost is $5 trillion or more, according to an independent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which keeps an eye on fiscal matters...Their plan is to include every program but start small and pretend they’re temporary. This will let them skirt the budget-reconciliation rule that spending can’t add to the deficit outside a 10-year budget window without triggering a 60-vote threshold to pass. The nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget examined the budget outline and on Monday released a more honest analysis of the bill’s cost. Its estimate is based on Joe Biden’s fiscal 2022 budget proposal and legislation that Democrats have already proposed that will fill in the budget blanks later this year. Assuming the major provisions will be made permanent and continue through the 10-year budget window, the group says, the “policies under consideration could cost between $5 trillion and $5.5 trillion over a decade.
Click through for a few examples of how this gimmickry works. For instance: "In their March Covid bill, Democrats increased the child tax credit for one year—to $3,600 for children under age 6 and $3,000 for ages 6-17. Democrats now want to extend it further, and Mr. Biden’s budget claims it would run through 2025—at a cost of $436 billion. But Democrats are already broadcasting their plan to make it permanent in 2025, which the independent budget committee estimates would cost $1.1 trillion over 10 years. That’s about 2% of U.S. GDP." Everyone involved knows the game that is afoot. They write "temporary" spending into this bill, erecting expiration dates solely for the purposes of manipulating the budgetary "score." Then, down the road, if anyone objects to extending or making permanent the "temporary spending," Democrats will shriek about widespread cruelty, death, and suffering. Rinse and repeat. This type of scam work will undoubtedly be embedded in whatever final bill Democrats land on, but the Manchins and Sinemas of the world are saying 'no' to the numbers being discussed. Here's the West Virginia Democrat's statement on his recent vote and next steps:
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My statement raising concerns about the consequences of passing a $3.5 trillion budget: pic.twitter.com/gGsEXcVTxd
— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) August 11, 2021
Over in the House, Nancy Pelosi has been insisting for weeks that she will hold the bipartisan plan hostage until the Democrat-only "reconciliation" legislation is passed. This is what her progressive wing wants, as they're already upset that the party isn't trying to spend even more. They don't trust the "moderates" to go along with sufficiently mammoth levels spending if the (carrot-filled) bipartisan bill has already become law. Thus, Pelosi told her caucus that she's putting the bipartisan, Senate-passed bill on ice until reconciliation goes through. But wait, some vulnerable House moderates don't like that plan, see a leverage opportunity, and have now issued a formal threat:
"We will not consider voting for a budget resolution until the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passes the House and is signed into law." https://t.co/e6AyIztSx4
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) August 13, 2021
Pelosi cannot lose more than a handful of votes, with every Republican opposed to the $3.5T+ spending spree. She's now in a tight spot. If 'moderates' hold firm in their stance, Pelosi may feel the need to reverse her sequencing, which could infuriate progressives, who have already been teeing off on their colleagues:
It was clear from the beginning that the way a skinny bill gets a shot is if it’s part of a larger infrastructure package. Voting on the skinny lobbyist-friendly bill 1st gives conservatives leeway to hurt the larger infrastructure bill w/childcare, Medicare, climate,etc. Nope ???????
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) August 11, 2021
Unfortunately for the country, Pelosi has proven very adept at ultimately getting her people in line, especially when the chips are down, so I wouldn't bet against her pulling something together. My guess is that they'll manage to work out a plan that is at least partly acceptable across their conference. But if both camps refuse to budge, and given a tiny margin for error, this could become a very ugly battle in the weeks to come, with a non-zero chance of collapse. I'll leave you with this:
WaPo: It's Bernie's budget show now. https://t.co/yubNKEmdiu pic.twitter.com/aZ5kQG93ZJ
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 13, 2021
Hardcore leftists are increasingly calling the shots within the Democratic Party.
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