In Louisiana's Saturday election, Republicans had a lot to cheer about. Among statewide office-holders, the incumbent GOP Lieutenant Governor (68 percent), Attorney General (66 percent), Treasurer (60 percent, and Agricultural Commissioner (58 percent) were all re-elected without the need for a run-off, under the state's 'jungle primary'-style system. It also appears that the solid Republican majorities in both state legislative chambers will remain intact -- with the GOP expanding its Senate advantage into super-majority territory by picking up a pair of Democratic seats:
Confirmed: With 100% of precincts reporting statewide, the GOP has gained a supermajority in the Louisiana Senate. They flipped SD-28 & SD-38.
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) October 13, 2019
Two major statewide races are headed to run-offs, and both are looking pretty good for Team Red. The incumbent Republican Secretary of State won a plurality of the vote, but didn't reach the bare majority threshold required to stave off the two-way election, scheduled for November 16. The Democrat in the contest only won about one-third of all votes, but because two other Republican challengers were in the mix -- combining for roughly 25 percent of the aggregate vote -- the sitting officeholder was held under 50 percent. All in, the trio of GOP candidates won 66 percent of the ballots for this office. This is going to be a Republican hold. Then there's the big one: The gubernatorial race. Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards, a pro-life moderate, was unable to avoid a runoff, attracting just 46.6 percent of the 'jungle primary' vote. The two leading Republicans in the contest racked up 51 percent of the vote, with the top GOP vote-getter, businessman Eddie Rispone, advancing to directly challenge the governor in November. Those are ominous tea leaves for Gov. Edwards, underscored by this trend:
My first map for #ElectionTwitter: Louisiana Governor shift from the 2015 Runoff to the 2019 Primary.
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) October 13, 2019
Edwards' vote share dropped in 62 of 64 Parishes. The only two exceptions were Jefferson + Orleans in the Southeast, reflecting Democrats' increasing suburban strength.#LAGOV pic.twitter.com/8NE35dgltR
The Communications Director for the Republican Governors Association put out this statement in response to Saturday's results: "No amount of goalpost-moving from Team @JohnBelforLA or @DemGovs can disguise that this was a stunningly poor performance for JBE. Days ago they were confidently predicting he'd beat 50. He lost vote share across the board & didn't even get a majority in his home parish." A plugged-in Louisiana GOP source tells me that the gubernatorial battle is now leans Republican, adding that "DJT coming down definitely got GOP votes out." The president certainly did visit ahead of the voting, and he didn't do so quietly. This is quite a sound-byte (content warning):
WOW
— Benny (@bennyjohnson) October 12, 2019
PRESIDENT TRUMP: Democrats “know they can’t win on Election Day so they’re pursuing an illegal, invalid, and Unconstitutional Bullsh*t Impeachment” pic.twitter.com/fihdqWmz1g
Parting thought: Between the Trump visit and Saturday's Louisiana results, I'd bet Sen. Doug Jones broke into a cold sweat.
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