GOP Eyes Sweep of Close Virginia House Races?

Posted: Oct 29, 2010 5:24 PM
A short while ago, I received a phone call from a reliable source who's very plugged-in with Virginia Republicans.  He told me he's just seen private polling data from all four competitive House races in the state that should encourage conservatives.  He said the numbers show each of the four Republican candidates relatively well-positioned to win, suggesting that an Old Dominion State sweep is attainable.  The four contests he mentioned are:

VA-02:  Incumbent Democrat Glenn Nye vs. Republican Scott Rigell.  My source says the new data he's seen shows Rigell in command with a double-digit lead.  That's a much more comfortable margin than the latest independent polls have demonstrated.

VA-05:  Incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello vs. Republican Robert Hurt.  The insider says although this race isn't quite as out of reach as it once appeared, Hurt maintains a solid lead in the high single digits.  Politico notes that Democrats and Dem-affiliated groups have pulled out all the stops to save Perriello.

VA-09:  Longtime incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher vs. Republican Morgan Griffith.  It comes as no surprise that the new data indicates this is the closest race of the four.  Still, Griffith has surged slightly ahead -- by the thinnest of margins.  This seems to confirm the final numbers from Survey USA. 

VA-11: Incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly vs. Republican Keith Fimian.  My source says Fimian has jumped in front of Connolly by a modest margin -- just slightly larger than Griffith's microscopic lead in the 9th District.  The DCCC apparently agrees that Connolly is in trouble: They're spending an astonishing $1 Million on this race in the final week of the campaign alone.

This Virginia GOP operative emphasized that he's not predicting a clean sweep of all four, but he believes it's certainly in the realm of possibility.  His synopsis: "If you're interested in how Tuesday night will play out across the country, watch our four races in Virginia.  If [Republicans] win two of those seats, it'll be a nice wave.  If we win three, it's a tidal wave.  If we take all four, we're looking at an epic tsunami.  As in, 70 or more pickups."