Wavetastic: House Democrats Seeing Red. Everywhere.

Posted: Oct 27, 2010 8:40 AM
The question of the week seems to be whether a righteous wave is forming that will demolish Democrats on November 2nd, or if GOP gains will end up being relatively modest.  A few new polls and projections released over the past 24 hours indicate that next Tuesday might be, to quote the Black Eyed Peas, a good, good night:

The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. A turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified.

What has Charlie Cook feeling so bullish about the GOP six days out?  Perhaps it's scrutinizing polls like these:

CA-20: In an election for US Representative from California's 20th Congressional District today, Republican challenger Andy Vidak is atop incumbent Democrat Jim Costa, 52% to 42%, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted in English and in Spanish for KFSN-TV Fresno.

NJ-03: The lead has switched in the race for New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll.  Republican challenger Jon Runyan now leads Democratic incumbent John Adler by 48% to 43% among likely voters in this district.  In a poll released on September 30, Adler held a nominal 42% to 39% edge. Runyan has a sizable 50% to 37% advantage among independents.

NJ-06: The Monmouth University poll shows Democrat Frank Pallone getting 52 percent of the vote to Republican Anna Little's 47 percent among likely voters.  That 7-point margin in the poll conducted Oct. 22 to 25 is closer than just three weeks ago, when Pallone was up by 12. (Note to the AP: 52-47 = 5 - not seven).

NM-01: in New Mexico's 1st District, Republican Jon Barela (R) has taken the lead over Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) for the first time, 49-47, according to Barela campaign polling obtained by Hotline On Call.

NY-04: The McLaughlin & Associates poll memo I obtained surveyed 300 likely voters on Wednesday and shows McCarthy (D) and Becker (R) in a statistical 46% to 45% tie, with 9% undecided. It also says Becker has gained a whopping 20 points since June, while McCarthy's number remains unchanged.

NY-20: Entering the final week of the campaign, Republican Chris Gibson has reversed an early campaign deficit and turned it into a 51-42 percent lead over Democratic Representative Scott Murphy, who is seeking his first re-election.

VA-09: A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia's 9th Congressional District, where Republican challenger Morgan Griffith appears to have awoken after 3 months of polling at 40% and...vaults into a tie with incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, who had been sailing to a 16th term. It's Griffith 47%, Boucher 46%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error.

WI-08: The Daily Kos/PPP released a new poll of Wisconsin’s 8th congressional district that shows Republican candidates strongly positioned heading into Election Day.  Republican Reid Ribble leads Rep. Steve Kagen (D) by three points — 40 to 37 percent — among likely voters, with 23 percent undecided. Ribble is winning independents 41 to 31 percent.

What do all of these districts have in common?  Here's a hint.

UPDATE: In my original post, I duplicated the information on NJ-03.  I've corrected it, adding NJ-06 to the mix, which was my initial intent.