A 'Little' Upset in NJ-06?

Posted: Oct 19, 2010 2:05 PM
This poll was commissioned by Republican Anna Little's campaign, so take it with all the usual "grain of salt" disclaimers, but it's still unsettling news for another firmly entrenched Democrat:

Republican numbers cruncher Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. shows Republican challenger Little with a shot to win in her challenge of a vulnerable U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch).

Commissioned by the Little campaign, Geller puts Pallone ahead of Little by one point, 44-43%, in a survey Geller conducted from Oct. 5-6.

The survey of 300 likely 6th Congressional District voters with a /- 5.66% margin of error shows that district voters favor the generic Republican candidate by a margin of 43-39%. 

Pallone has a favorability rating of 42%, compared to 36% unfavorable. His job approval rating, according to the poll, is 35%, compared to 39% who disapprove. Among voters who have heard of both candidates, Little leads Pallone, 58-32%.

Little supporters will also note that Gov. Chris Christie won the 6th district in last year's gubernatorial election.  A Monmouth poll shows a healthier lead for Pallone at 12 points, which is still much tighter than his 67-32 victory margin in 2008. 

A Tipsheet reader from the district emailed me about the emerging enthusiasm gap in this race last week:

I was home last weekend and I was shocked when all I saw on the highway near campus was Anna Little signs. Sure, this could be placed by enthusiastic Little supporters, but i was there during 2006 and 2008 campaigns and their were ZERO signs for Republicans. Even though [the Monmouth poll] shows her trailing by 12, that is a huge shock. Pallone is so well known in this district, anything under 60% for him on election day is humiliating. This district was gerrymandered for him...

If that's the case, I'd hate to think how humiliating an actual loss would be for Pallone.  It would certainly complicate his well-known Senate ambitions.