Poll: Brown, Warren Neck-And-Neck in Mass Senate Race

Posted: Apr 02, 2012 2:08 PM

The second poll conducted this month in Massachusetts shows incumbent Senator Scott Brown and his presumptive Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren essentially tied in a statistical dead heat:

A Boston Globe poll released Sunday shows Brown with 37 percent support from likely voters to Warren's 35 percent. Brown's two-point edge falls within the poll's 4 percent margin of error, however.

But the race is still fluid months ahead of their November match-up, with over a quarter of those surveyed, 26 percent, saying they remain undecided.

The poll also finds Brown, the only Republican lawmaker in the state's congressional delegation, popular with voters. Fifty-four percent surveyed viewed him favorably, with 29 percent unfavorable.

If anything, a positive takeaway for the Brown campaign is that the Senator is very well liked in his home state. In a head to head hypothetical matchup, for instance, 57 percent of those polled said Scott Brown was a more likeable candidate. Only 23 percent felt that way about Elizabeth Warren. Furthermore, 49 percent of Bay Staters believe Senator Brown would serve the Commonwealth as a bipartisan leader, compared to only 27 percent who said that about his presumptive opponent. All things considered, the Brown reelection campaign has tried – perhaps successfully – to paint their candidate as a moderate Republican willing to work across party lines. And based on these new numbers, the strategy seems to be paying off.

The bottom line, though, is that 26 percent of the randomly selected sample is undecided. Still, I’m taking these numbers with a grain of salt. Remember when the Boston Globe conducted a similar survey in 2010 showing Martha Coakley leading Scott Brown by 15 percentage points nine days before the special election? They were way off.

In any case, the poll does reaffirm what I’ve been writing about for months – namely, the battle in Massachusetts will be one of the most hotly contested Senate races in 2012.